Individual participation in Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be sluggish. This signal is derived from data from the CryptoQuant on-chain explorer and uses transactions from $0 to $10,000 as a reference to estimate retail activity.
Market analyst Dirkforst showed that the 30-day demand change indicator has declined to approximately -10%, based on data from March 21, 2026.
This is the lowest point since early 2025, when it reached an area below -15%.This confirms the associated loss of dynamism in this market segment.
Such a percentage decline was seen during the final stages of the previous bear market, which occurred from 2022 to early 2023, as shown in the following graph showing the relationship between Bitcoin price and retail investor activity.
The white line represents the price of BTC and the color indicates changes in demand. Green indicates increased interest and purchases by retail investors, while red indicates decreased activity. Taken together, we can see how the behavior of ordinary retailers follows or predicts market movements.
Historically, retail investor participation has tended to accelerate when prices enter a bull cycle and contract when the market loses momentum or corrects. In that sense, what has happened in the last few days is partly consistent with this dynamic.
Early last week, Bitcoin turned bullish, reaching nearly $76,000 on the back of widespread optimism and positive flows into ETFs. However, they were unable to maintain that momentum. External factors (such as macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions) ultimately put downward pressure on prices.
Importantly, despite this movement (initial rise and subsequent correction), retail demand did not respond significantly at any point. The rise towards $76,000 did not cause a sustained increase in retail participation, nor can the subsequent decline alone explain the current weakness of this indicator.
This suggests that historical patterns are still valid.However, there is one important difference. That is, retail investors are not leading this cycle. Rather than reacting strongly to price changes, its activity remains weak even during the recovery period, supporting the view of the market as having less noticeable impact on retail.
Among the factors that may be having an impact is the emergence of new investment vehicles such as Bitcoin ETFs that allow exposure to the asset through a regulated market. This type of instrument is channeling some of the demand that was previously reflected directly in on-chain activity.
For example, in the chart below, you can see how the Bitcoin ETF recorded consecutive net outflows of approximately $164 million on March 18th, approximately $90 million the next day, and $52 million on March 20th. These are all trading activities related to the price of Bitcoin, but they don’t necessarily have an immediate impact at the on-chain level (although they can if the ETF manager buys or sells Bitcoin to back up their actions or redeem investors).
Institutional investors such as Strategy accumulate Bitcoin
The retreat of retail investors is in contrast to the strategy of some institutional investors, who continued to increase their exposure to take advantage of the decline.
Among them, Strategy is the listed company that holds the most Bitcoins in its treasury. On March 23, Strategy filed a new plan with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise additional funds through the issuance of stock. With this initiative, the company aims to raise up to an additional $44.1 billion as it continues to grow its position in digital assets.
Long-term bullish fundamentals such as Bitcoin’s scarcity drive these purchases; against widespread sales pressure. The fixed supply of this currency is 21 million units. This allows the currency to appreciate in response to demand, unlike traditional currencies such as the dollar, where supply increases. Those with a long-term vision see these characteristics as attractive beyond short-term volatility.
