Bitcoin ownership base matures, less dependent on retail: analyst
Bitcoin investors have shown remarkable resilience despite recent market turmoil fueled by institutional investors and aggressive corporate bond buyers.
Analysts say the trend highlights structural changes in ownership that could support long-term growth. Institutional demand is clearly back, with “four consecutive sessions of ETF inflows and active spot demand…suggesting one thing: institutional buyers are returning and are ready to increase their holdings around the current price, which has resulted in a rally above $70,000,” Bitfinex said in a note. Bitcoin Magazine.
“After weeks of range trading, a sustained break above resistance could trigger an increase in momentum as the balance of positioning and flows suggests the market is preparing for a move in the next direction,” Bitfinex wrote.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan also emphasized the commitment of institutional investors, noting that Bitcoin ETFs have held up despite a roughly 50% price decline since October 2025.
“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hogan said. coin desk Report.
“Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $60 billion in net inflows from their inception in January 2024 to October 2025. Since October 2025, prices have fallen by 50%, but outflows from the ETFs have been less than $10 billion,” he said.
Hogan described institutional investors as demonstrating a “diamond hand” in holding positions despite severe market declines. He attributes this persistence to the lack of consensus. $BTC.
Mr. Hogan is $BTC Even today, they stick their neck out and stand out from their peers. He explained that career risk fosters unusually high conviction, meaning that investors who allocate capital to Bitcoin today tend to be slightly less optimistic, 80-90% certain of its long-term value.
This belief supports Hogan’s reaffirmed long-term Bitcoin forecast of $1 million per coin.
“The most outlandish thing about my $1 million prediction is that it’s not outlandish at all,” he said. “All that is needed for Bitcoin to reach $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years, and for Bitcoin to become a significant part of that market.”
Hogan argued last week that skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $1 million stems from a misunderstanding of Bitcoin’s valuation, as many analysts use “static mathematics” that ignores the rapidly growing global store of value market.
framing $BTC As a new competitor to gold, he estimates there is a $38 trillion market. $BTCWith a fixed supply of 21 million coins, a price target of $1 million is reasonable.
Bitcoin is no longer very speculative
In support of this theory, Bernstein analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s ownership base is maturing and less dependent on retail speculation.
In a March 16 research note viewed by bitcoin magazinethey emphasized the growing influence of spots $BTC Corporate finance buyers such as ETFs and Strategy.
The company describes Strategy as a “Bitcoin central bank of last resort” and cites its aggressive accumulation model, adding over 66,000 Bitcoins. $BTC The average cost so far in 2026 is nearly $85,000. Total strategy holdings now exceed 761,000 $BTCworth approximately $56 billion.
Bernstein emphasized that institutional capital inflows are being reshaped. $BTCownership structure. Spot ETFs absorbed about $2.1 billion in inflows over three weeks, nearly offsetting the $460 million in outflows since the beginning of the year.
Currently, public sector vehicles manage approximately 6.1%. $BTCIn addition to the total supply, coins that have not been used for more than a year account for approximately 60% of the circulating supply, indicating a growing base of long-term holders.
In addition to this, on-chain indicators indicate the late stages of a bearish cycle, as explained by Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet. bitcoin magazine: “The convergence of on-chain metrics such as realized price and MVRV suggests that Bitcoin may be entering the late stages of a typical bear cycle, a stage historically associated with long-term accumulation rather than continued capitulation.”
Despite near-term macro headwinds, the current situation points to a strategic accumulation phase. $BTC For long-term investors, positions for the next cycle are likely to fluctuate between $68,000 and $84,000.
This post first appeared in Bitcoin Magazine: Bitcoin’s ownership base matures, reducing reliance on retail: Analysts and was written by Micah Zimmerman.
