Bitcoin price is nearly 45% off its all-time high of $126,080, reflecting deteriorating market conditions over the past few months. One of the indicators confirming the emergence of a bear market is that the 365-day moving average broke downward at the end of last year. Using this indicator, a prominent cryptocurrency researcher has come up with an assessment that shows how the current Bitcoin bear market compares to past markets.
BTC price is 30% below its 365-day moving average.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a new post on social media platform The indicator focused on in this analysis is the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of the BTC price chart.
Moreno defined the start of a bear market as the moment the price of Bitcoin falls below its 365-day SMA. According to on-chain experts, the leading cryptocurrency is down 30% so far at this stage, making it one of the worst bear seasons in recent times.
Source: @jjcmoreno on X
As you can see in the chart above, Bitcoin price is deeper than is usually seen at this stage of the bear market. During the 2014 bear market, the flagship cryptocurrency has barely lost 20% at this stage of the season.
The same goes for the 2018 down season, when market share was close to 20% at this stage. However, the Bitcoin price may have succumbed to greater pressure during the 2022 season. That’s because the market leader is down nearly 60% below its 365-day moving average at this stage of the cycle.
This trend is particularly interesting considering that Bitcoin is considered to be maturing as an asset class. However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency still appears to be seeing extraordinary levels of volatility at the start of a bear market.
It is unclear when the price of Bitcoin will hit bottom, but certain conditions must be met for a reversal to occur. One of these conditions is the obvious demand indicator, which has continued to worsen over the past few weeks. Capital constraints have been a major issue for top cryptocurrencies, as shown by outflow figures from the US-based Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $70,500, up more than 2% in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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