With a 74% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $92,000 this week, Polymarket traders are extremely pessimistic about the cryptocurrency’s short-term gains. Structural issues on the chart and the market’s behavior after the recent sharp decline are reflected in this sentiment, and it is not arbitrary.
bitcoin grind
Despite Bitcoin’s dramatic recovery from lows below $85,000, the rally is still more of a reflex recovery than a trend reversal. Bitcoin is digging into the underside of a dense resistance cluster on the chart. The 20-EMA, 50-EMA, and 100-EMA all converge from $99,000 to $104,000 and are sloping downward, creating a barrier that historically requires significant momentum to break through.
Before Bitcoin can hope to reach $100,000 again, it must overcome the impending hurdle of $92,000 to $94,000, where the market repeatedly slumped before the November breakdown.
The recovery is on track, but it comes after one of the steepest declines this year. This type of move usually attracts speculative pushback, but continued conviction is not always guaranteed. Although the volume during the rebound is higher than during the liquidation cascade, it is still quite low. This imbalance indicates that buyers are not dominant, but rather reactive.
Perhaps mental fatigue is also factored in for polymarket traders. After Bitcoin lost months of support and broke through the 200-day region without any significant stagnation, the market realized that the uptrend was not as strong as many thought. Recovering lost levels is always more difficult than maintaining them.
Why the current recovery is unstable
Furthermore, the market is waiting for confirmation that this rally is not a result of trapped longs breaking out to strength or shorts covering. This is a more common macro hesitation. Recovery remains in doubt and is susceptible to further rollover unless there is a strong push above $92,000.
The charts already show that Bitcoin has upside potential, but it is heading straight for resistance without a strong enough catalyst to force a breakout. This is reflected in bearish odds of 74%. It would be premature to expect Bitcoin to soar towards $100,000 until buyers prove they can break through the $92,000 ceiling.
