Over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are scheduled to expire on October 31, 2025 at 8:00 UTC on Deribit. This is one of the biggest monthly crypto derivatives events of the year.
This maturity exceeds last week’s $6 billion event due to the monthly rollover of the October contract. Traders and investors should closely monitor maximum pain levels and positioning, both of which can influence short-term price movements.
Bitcoin options market shows bullish stance
The options expiring today are for the current month and are significantly higher than last week’s $4 billion.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,389, with expiry approaching, but the biggest pain point lies at $100,000, suggesting the market is heavily biased to the upside despite recent turmoil. At this strike price, the option holder will suffer the most losses.
Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to move towards the maximum pain zone as expiration approaches, as a result of market makers hedging their positions. During this expiration date, 145,482 contracts worth $13.28 billion will be awarded.
The put-call ratio is 0.54, indicating that more traders are betting on profits than losses. Nevertheless, Deribit data shows that call open interest of 94,539 contracts outweighed put open interest of 50,943 contracts.
Bitcoin options expire. Source: Deribit
According to Deribit analysts, the recent market pullback played a key role in shaping the positioning. According to them, traders with long puts took profits (TPd) when Bitcoin reached $81,000 to $82,000.
“After a 35% decline from $126,000, the puts went long TPD against $81,000-82,000 and maintained cautious protection against spot BTC longs at 80-85,000 strikes. “Condor trading was bullish on EoY 100-106-112-118,000, with the call condor initially looking at a premium of 12,000, approximately $6.5 million,” Deribit analysts wrote.
This large call condor is an option structure designed to capture upside within a defined range, making it a standout trade in both size and sentiment.
2) Initially the purchases started with v 865xx, up to 88,000 were purchased against the original 12,000 blocks, and subsequent imitations and buybacks added 2.5,000 volumes with the same strategy.
If executed by the deadline, buyers are targeting over 100,000 by December 26th, with an ideal final settlement of 106-112,000 and a maximum payoff of 10:1. pic.twitter.com/cR2e9Yvpho
— Deribit Insights (@DeribitInsights) November 27, 2025
Such aggressive year-end positioning suggests that some traders are still betting on a strong rebound in December even after the correction from all-time highs.
At the same time, other market participants are also actively capping the upside through overwriting strategies.
“Underneath the call condor volume was a persistent and familiar callover writer with December 100,000 calls and January 100,000-105,000 calls. These and the overall easing of downside concerns have slowed IV, but given RV still performing and the two-way put (+spread) action, much is inconclusive,” the analysts wrote.
Overall, BTC’s options committee exhibits a tension between long-term bullish conviction and short-term caution. This situation often leads to increased volatility in Deribit’s 08:00 UTC settlement window.
Ethereum faces $1.7 billion expiry with moderate skew
Ethereum is trading at $3,014 and today’s maximum expiration pain level is $3,400. The asset has 387,010 open calls and 187,198 puts for a total of 574,208 contracts and a put-to-call ratio of 0.48. ETH options accounted for $1.73 billion in notional value, making it the second largest component of today’s expirations.
Ethereum options expire. Source: Deribit
Unlike Bitcoin, ETH’s positioning is less extreme. Downside skew is lighter and open interest is more evenly distributed across large strikes.
Much of today’s impact could come from whether Bitcoin’s volatility spills over into the broader market, as traders focus on ETH’s price action relative to BTC.
The liquidity situation could change rapidly for both BTC and ETH as billions of dollars of open interest are liquidated.
If spot prices fluctuate toward maximum pain levels, market makers can exert a suppressive effect. If volatility spikes, these expirations can act as an accelerator.
Either way, today’s results mark a pivotal moment, with traders divided on whether to hedge defensively or make bold bullish bets at the end of the year.
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