October opened with Spikes of Risk when the US government closed, while Bitcoin (BTC) pushed high along with other majors, while Gold printed fresh records.
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $117,402.84, an increase of 3% over the past 24 hours. An immediate read is the classic “Chaos Bid.”
But beneath the knee there is a more important mechanism for cryptography. Data blackouts blur the path of the Federal Reserve and, in turn, flow into spot exchange funds (ETFs), which have become the dominant marginal buyer of Bitcoin.
So are numbers that lock global macros when Washington gets dark. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic Analysis and Census Bureau will suspend collections and publications during the closure.
As a result, monthly US employment reports, consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales will slip or disappear completely. It takes away traders and ETF allocators key to the market of input used to reduce prices into the curve.
This cycle is particularly severe as investors were already leaning towards further easing in 2025. Precisely removing non-agricultural payroll (NFP) and CPIs will tend to be sensitive to positioning, broaden confidence intervals and lift volatility.
Changing the conditions
Flow rides dollars to make actual yields. The shutdown initially put the dollar in pressure towards the previous cut.
That’s one of the possible reasons for the benefit in the crypto market as the funds expired. However, as the lack of data surprises the market with a stance of “prep” the market, the precise mechanism can be flipped over and the dollar can be solidified in the decline of the shade of risk.
A risk-off environment can starve fresh influx of ETFs and tighten spot fluidity. So it amplifies the next macro story where the blackout appears.
There is also a pipe angle. The shutdown pushes financial regulators into the skeleton crew, slowing down essential processing.
In the crypto market as a whole, this may mean delays in ETF actions, such as approvals for AltCoin products, or other management timelines. This is not a structural problem, but removes discrete catalysts that often concentrate flow on short windows.
Furthermore, Asia’s Golden Week has already begun to hollow out order books in the first few days of October. Match it with a US data vacuum and creates a setup where fewer orders will have a greater impact on the price than usual.
Holiday lulls along the shutdown accelerate volatility. This creates and redemptions of ETFs, bringing even more sudden swings in prices, even more narrow movements, creating an environment where daytime liquidity is bears its brunt.
Branch path
The current landscape has the opportunity to fork the pass over the next day.
Under a bullish scenario, the missing NFP and CPI keep the Fed’s hands softer in the minds of investors, the dollar staying on its hind legs, and allocators continue to be added to the “policy-making” narrative.
The crypto market has historically recorded strong performance in the fourth quarter, but has lended more of that potential. The price hike on October 1 fits that template, repeating past weeks of closings, with the market leaning on hedges and alternatives.
In the bearish version, a blackout becomes a vacuum that stalls confidence. Without fresh macro prints, managers will be added, dealers will spread wider, and negative shock locks will be trapped in a higher bar for new money.
If that matches the slow walk and nonessential action of regulation, the market could drift into the “catalytic desert.” That mix tends to be punished for high beta assets, including Bitcoin.
In fact, the watch list is simple. The first topic is the period of shutdown as the longer the tape trades data blinds, the more each private proxy swings the rate. This could cause ETFs to send them to the spot market.
The second topic is the dollar and actual yields. If both become soft while Washington is closed, dip buyers usually step into BTC. Conversely, ETF demand declines, and the path of least resistance is lower if it is solid.
The final topic is liquidity conditions during and after Golden Week. Scaling thin books works in both ways. The net effect is not in itself a new trend, but more variance around the trend, and variance is the tailwind of a disciplined, flow-driven strategy.
US Data Blackout magically doesn’t leak capital to Bitcoin, but reroutes macro plumbing that supplies ETFs and drives more price changes at less depth.
As the shutdown passes quickly and the next data printing tilts the dish, “chaos bids” can stick to a sustained influx. If you tilt towards drug or proxy data and you tilt towards Hawkish, the lack of official numbers feels more like fog than freedom.
