Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $120,367.71 as of the time of reporting. This is close to an all-time high of $124,000 and is based on expectations for interest rate cuts and a reset of market structure.
With softer US labor signals and live government shutdowns, traders have leaned heavily towards another Fed cut this month, lifting risky assets across the board.
At the same time, after the quarter-end options expire, positioning to crypto is “cleaned up”, shifting flow and on-chain metrics from defensive to neutral configuration.
Bitcoin has risen about 1.5% in the last 24 hours, after temporarily reaching $121,000 in futures before slipping down.
Ethereum rose to $4,477.52, up 3% in the daily time frame, followed by BNB, followed by a 5.7% increase before surged to $1,084.87.
Solana went to $231.93 after a 4.4% tailwind, with XRP rising 4% in the last 24 hours. Cardano’s daily 2.2% increase caused a price of $0.8698, with Dogecoin earning a 4.2% growth to $0.2596.
Growth Catalyst
Macro Impulse is simple. Private pay data showed an unusual decline, and pushed ahead with the Ministry of Finance, increasing the likelihood of interest rate reductions.
Glassnode’s October 2nd report helps explain why the rally is more stable than its previous aperture. They pointed out that Bitcoin continues to respect the cost base of short-term holders that have served as support since May.
Meanwhile, prices compete with dense supply bands ranging from $114,000 to $118,000. Importantly, the distribution of long-term holders has been moderated, and ETF inflows have resumed, meaning stabilizing demand rather than one-off spikes.
Sentiment gauges such as the Realized Value (RVT) of the Short-Term Holder and the Fear & Greed Index are cooled in line with the period of integration rather than the yield.
With Derivatives, the record expires last week and resets positioning. As open profits are restructured in the fourth quarter, the implicit volatility softens, skew drifts towards neutral, and the term structure remains a stiff backend in the contango.
Overall, the report characterizes the background as neutral but constructive, awaiting the catalyst for the “next decisive movement.” The background coincides with the coccyx of the macroeconomics. Shutdown uncertainty continues to amplify “rate trade.” This could be delaying some economic releases and leaning towards the market.
To maintain momentum, the crypto market needs clear evidence and clear evidence that BTC can absorb supply overhangs between $114,000 and $118,000 without rekindling long-term holder distributions.
It is mentioned in this article
(TagStoTRASSLATE) Bitcoin (T) Analysis (T) Crypto (T)
