The Bitcoin (BTC) market is facing a potentially significant technical zone during the current correction phase. Approximately 62,000 dollars (USD). Although this level is far from the current price ($89,000), it is an important level to consider.
reason? This is the realized price of Bitcoin balances on Binance, the cryptocurrency exchange with the highest volume of transactions. This indicator reflects the average cost of acquiring Bitcoin reserves on the platform.
Since the last bullish cycle culminated in 2021, This indicator served as a turning point. “If the price of Bitcoin rises above this level, the bullish trend continues, and if it falls below this level, the bearish season begins,” explains analyst Burak Kesmesi.
Bitcoin’s realized price on Binance served as a good support during the correction phase of the bull market. But analysts say there are structural differences in the current situation compared to the past that could lead to change. This is primarily due to the emergence of US exchange traded funds (ETFs), which have attracted institutional investors.
In the post-Bitcoin ETF era
The digital currency has not tested this price level since the Bitcoin Spot ETF was approved in the US. In other words, it has been trading higher for more than two years.
When these products arrive in January 2024 (pink band on the chart), “the dynamics of the market have changed,” Keshmeshi emphasizes. Before that, the realized value of Binance Reserve was around $42,000, but after the ETF’s approval, this level rose to $62,000.
“The bottom of this bear period could be different from previous cycles due to paradigm shifts such as institutional investors, ETFs, and increased adoption,” analysts wrote in a report on the issue.
Bitcoin’s volatility will decrease over time as it acquires more long-term investors. In this sense, it could mean that there is less selling pressure and there is not a significant bear market in the currency.
Para Keshmechi, Bitcoin is already in a bearish cycle From a technical perspective, it has not fallen below the realized price on Binance. Therefore, he believes the $62,000 level currently represents “the first major test of support in the post-ETF era.”
The cryptocurrency market has been in decline since October 2025, when BTC hit an all-time high of $126,000. The move reignites debate about the possibility of another crypto winter, characterized by a contraction in the crypto sector and a decline in activity.
A different kind of bear market may be underway
Sebastian Serrano, founder of Argentinian cryptocurrency exchange Ripio, also estimates that “the so-called bear market has already begun,” as he told CriptoNoticias. In his opinion, Bitcoin could fall to $75,000 psychological zone Throughout 2026.
The businessman believes that the current market moment is different from previous cycles and a significant decline is not possible. For managers, the entry of institutional investors and the advancement of Bitcoin ETFs are contributing to market structuring and resilience. There is increasing participation of buyers from the traditional financial sector, he argues. Therefore, he estimates that the recent decline has been more modest than in the past.
“I’m not saying we’re already in the middle of winter, but we may be heading into winter. There may be a reasonable period of one or two quarters before a bigger correction occurs,” Serrano said. “When winter comes, it tends to be shorter, about a year,” he added.
According to Serrano, cryptocurrencies are entering a more mature stage. In practice, this means less wild price fluctuations and more emphasis on solutions that are actually used on a daily basis, are liquid, and have real-world applications. He explains that the presence of large investors has helped absorb the sales activity that previously caused a notable decline. Along with that, Markets tend to become more stable and predictable.
“In 2026, the industry should become less euphoric and more streamlined, with less retailer participation and more institutional adoption,” he comments. “Over the long term, Bitcoin continues its upward trend, supported by its scarcity and role as a protective asset.”
ETF demand as a long-term driver
Analysis of the structural impact of ETFs was also recently addressed by Matt Hogan, CEO of Bitwise, which issues one of these products in the US. For managers, Recent gold rally provides clear guidance What will happen to Bitcoin if institutional demand is sustained over time.
Hogan said central bank demand for gold began to accelerate in 2022 after the United States confiscated Russian Treasury deposits. “Annual purchases increased from about 500 tonnes to about 1,000 tonnes and have remained at that level ever since,” he explained.
Still, the impact on prices was progressive. Gold rose about 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024. “It wasn’t until 2025 that prices skyrocketed,” Hogan said. He explained that for the first few years, this additional demand was absorbed by investors looking to sell their reserves. “Over time, sellers ran out of ammunition and prices rose rapidly as demand continued.”
According to Bitwise’s CEO, the Bitcoin market is experiencing similar trends. It may not mean the beginning of a bear market. Since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024, these products have purchased over 100% of new BTC supply. However, prices have not yet reflected this imbalance. “This happened because existing holders were aggressively selling,” he said.
Hogan concluded that the deciding factor is whether that demand persists. “If demand for ETFs continues over time, and I think it will, sellers will start to lose momentum over time,” he said. As a result, he believes “the price of Bitcoin would skyrocket” in such a scenario.
