If whales (investors with over 1,000 coins in their wallets) have been increasing their purchasing pace since October 6th, how do you explain the fact that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fall?
Since that day, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted from an all-time high of $126,198 to below $90,000. The following graph shows the decline in asset prices.
Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, Data Provider Analyst On-chain CryptoQuant notes that the “largest absorption in recent cycles” has been recorded from October 6 to date.
During that period, Whale increased his holdings from 159,000 BTC to 345,000 BTC. “But instead of rebounding, the price has plummeted. Now, the entire market is in extreme fear, recording billions of dollars worth of unrealized losses, while large investors are accumulating huge amounts of BTC,” he said.
The following graph shows that BTC demand trends over the past 30 days This is due to management who have not sold their stock until now.
Each spike in the purple bar coincides with a period when whales increased their buying prior to a large price move. in the final zone We are seeing very strong demand growth while prices start to level off. This shows that the market is watching closely to predict its next move.
Experts say the reason for the price drop is that “retail investor capitulation is not over yet and downward pressure continues in the short term, even though fundamentals remain bullish.”
“Capitulation” refers to the moment when many small investors sell out of fear, creating downward pressure in the short term.
When there was a demand for The number of investors who normally do not sell their stocks is rapidly increasing.experts warn that there are two scenarios.
The first is “a large rally driven by a significant absorption of supply, which then allows these investors to diversify their positions in the face of new retail demand.”
“Smart capital is absorbing the discount panic selling. If retail investors capitulate completely, we will see a sharp rally as supply dries up,” he added.
That is, at this moment Big investors are buying everything retailers are selling out of fear. Once that sale is gone, prices will rebound significantly as available supply decreases and demand returns.
The second scenario suggested by Moreno is “an eventual decline in which prices dissipate the remainder of the market’s demand before a more sustained trend forms.”
If this scenario materializes, analysts say: Prices may fall significantly.
“This ‘accumulation’ may be turning the buying opportunity into a trap. If BTC falls further, the appetite for accumulation is completely destroyed, forcing even the most experienced investors to reconsider their positions. In both cases, the signal is the same: long-term funds are actively entering the market, while short-term sentiment is collapsing. This divergence rarely lasts long, and when it does resolve it is usually very strong,” Moreno points out.
This behavior shows how capital is ultimately concentrated in hands that are more resilient to volatility. Previous cycles predicted a long period of BTC accumulation and subsequent increase.
As CriptoNoticias explains, when a major company buys on the decline, the market typically interprets it as a vote of confidence in an upcoming rebound, or a prelude to a new bullish impulse.
