As the Fed prepares to announce its most important interest rate decision of the year tomorrow at 22:00 Turkiye time (UTC+3), prediction market Polymarket’s pricing provides a clear indication of investors’ expectations.
Markets believe a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut at the December meeting is almost certain, according to the data.
In the polymarket, the “25 basis points rate cut” scenario has a clear lead with 97% probability. The probability of a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points or more is just 1%. The probability of the “no change” option, which means the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, is 3%.
The market is completely ignoring the possibility of a rate hike. The probability of a “25 basis points or more rate hike” scenario is less than 1%.
We at Bitcoininsistemi.com will instantly share tomorrow’s Fed decision. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference regarding interest rate decisions tomorrow at 10:30 p.m. You can follow this conference directly on our platform.
*This is not investment advice.
