On February 28, 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell to $63,245 due to airstrikes by both the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This triggered an Iranian response against at least six US military facilities in the Gulf region, including facilities in Israeli territory and in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.
At present, The digital currency shows a slight recovery and trades at $66,217as seen in the graph, this represents an increase of 4.7%.
Iran’s attacks continue to intensify, with the number of missiles fired showing no signs of slowing down for the third day. On the contrary, the use of new missiles has also been reported. In this climate of uncertainty, analysts are closely monitoring the movements of digital assets to predict the reaction of traditional finance.
“Bitcoin is being used as an indicator to determine whether the financial trading market will open in red or green on Monday,” said Samson Mo, CEO of technology company JAN3. By operating 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, Bitcoin acts as a forward-looking thermometer that can tell whether an investor’s mood is optimistic or pessimistic.Before the bell tolls on Wall Street.
Bitcoin as a risk asset or reserve asset in conflict
Bitcoin is considered a “risk” asset by much of the market, so it tends to be sold off while capital is moved into instruments considered safer, such as cash or U.S. Treasuries.
But amidst this geopolitical escalation, an interesting dichotomy is emerging. While some treat it as a volatile risk asset suffering a sell-off in a global risk aversion environment, other segments of the market appear to be increasingly recognizing and utilizing it as an alternative store of value, similar to ‘digital gold’ in times of uncertainty.
Despite the volatility, several indicators point to a change in trader sentiment. “The recent selling pressure from buyers is fading away. Panic has been replaced by patience, or at least fatigue,” said CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.
According to experts, Current market structure shows unexpected resilience In the face of the conflict that has broken out in the Middle East.
Despite the recent geopolitical escalation surrounding Iran (historically the type of event that triggers a reactive sell-off), the data does not show a significant increase in flows to exchanges by short-term holders. Typically sensitive to events, this cohort is free from panicked profit-taking, capitulation to losses, and reactive behavior.
Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, Market Analyst.
Regulatory challenges and employment data
This week, macroeconomic indicators that will affect the market will be announced in the US as well. Tomorrow, March 3, 2026, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig will participate in a Milken Institute event.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, both officials may delve into the so-called “Crypto Project,” an effort to harmonize regulatory approaches and lay the groundwork for digital asset legislation being processed in Congress.
Finally, on Friday, March 6, 2026, the February U.S. employment report will be released. The results of labor are important in determining the health of the economy; May impact Bitcoin volatility heading into the weekend.
In the most likely scenario over the next few days, Bitcoin will remain in a volatile range between $63,000 and $68,000, showing relative resilience in the face of past crises, but coming under pressure from global defensive sentiment. A slowing in the escalation of the conflict could test higher resistance towards $70,000, while further escalation or a very strong employment report could send it towards lower support.
