Eleven years is a short time in history, but a long time for this market.
When CriptoNoticias published its first memo in April 2015, Bitcoin was trading at around $250, Ethereum had not launched its main network, and no one expected Elon Musk to eventually become CEO of Dogecoin (DOGE).
After more than a decade of uninterrupted coverage, it’s worth pausing today, not only to celebrate, but also for a more instructive exercise. Reviewing what the market has taught us about itself and about us.
Even if the fad passes, Bitcoin will continue
Years of reporting have left us with an uncomfortable certainty for those betting on the broader ecosystem. The cycle repeats, the project dies, and Bitcoin lives on.
I will report rise of ICO in 2017when hundreds of tokens promised to revolutionize everything from supply chains to the medical industry.
We cover: summer DeFi In 2020, boom NFT’s 2021, collapse by Terra/LUNA In 2022, FTX infection In that same year.
We will also report metaverse. Readers who have been following us since at least 2021 will remember how the idea of us all “living in the Metaverse” was touted.
Each wave washed away capital, media attention, and, in many cases, real people’s savings.
Bitcoin has been through all of that. It’s not because it’s immune to volatility, which it obviously isn’t, but because its proposition doesn’t rely on a founding team, a quarterly roadmap, or tokens that serve you on a platform that exists today and may not exist tomorrow.
The lesson is not that Bitcoin is perfect. The thing is The mortality rate of the entire “virtual currency industry” is extremely high.Professional journalism therefore needs to clearly distinguish between Bitcoin and other projects that seek to copy it.
CriptoNoticias makes it clear in its mission statement:
Be able to educate your audience and business partners about the Bitcoin ecosystem and its economic, political, and social impact. We achieve this by creating and distributing information and knowledge quickly and accurately, using a variety of digital channels and formats, and with high editorial and journalistic standards.
CriptoNoticias Mission Statement.
No one is ruling out the Bitcoin cycle (at least for now)
Every bullish cycle comes with a story that justifies why this time is different. 2017 saw mass recruitment by ICOs. In 2020 and 2021, institutional products will be introduced. In 2024 and 2025, look for Bitcoin inclusion in spot ETFs and the reserves of some states and large corporations. and Each time the market rises, creating a sense of euphoria, then he violently corrected.
Eleven years of unique data (published news, recorded prices, documented cycles) show a pattern that macroeconomic arguments have been unable to conclusively invalidate. Halving still affects offers.
Market sentiment continues to oscillate between extreme fear and extreme greed. 70% and 80% corrections are repeated. Those who have internalized it will not be immune to the market, but at least they will not be surprised when the difficult part of the cycle arrives. And the hard part always comes.
This is statistical: most price predictions fail
Save the file. It is both a blessing and a condemnation. We’ve been documenting predictions by analysts, funds, executives, ecosystem players (and even some of our own) that haven’t held up over the months.
The price target was never met and there was no rise or fall. The forgotten mass hiring day. The project declared “safe” collapsed after a few weeks…
This is not a criticism of those who analyze the market. The problem is not the analyst. The question is how those analyzes are sometimes done.
Bitcoin is one of the most difficult assets to predict in the short term. Bitcoin operates 24/7, is global, and is sensitive to a variety of variables, from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to the tweets of someone with millions of followers.
What 11 years of reporting has taught us is: Report analysis content: Not an oracle, but a substantiated hypothesis. And don’t trust those who don’t allow margin for error in their predictions in a polite and firm manner.
I have to tell you the bad news too.
Every time we publish a bearish note, whether it’s an obvious fix, a major hack, unfavorable regulation, or the collapse of a project, some audience members react with hostility (and express it on social media).
If we are pessimistic, if we sell fear, if we work for those who want to keep prices down…we get it. No one enjoys reading about their investments collapsing.
but Journalism that publishes only good news is not journalism. That’s marketing.
And in a market where information asymmetry can be costly, omitting bad news can cost readers dearly.
We’ve reported on hacks, scams, bankruptcies, defacements, and fixes with the same zeal we have covered all-time highs. That consistency doesn’t translate into popularity at any point in the cycle. it helps usthat’s important.
There is always an incentive for the source
Few people speak from a neutral standpoint in the “cryptocurrency” ecosystem.
Analysts predicting the price may have open positions. The fund recommending the asset may have already purchased the asset. Influencers promoting the tokens likely received an allocation. Business owners who declare that their projects are “okay” have legal and financial obligations to say so, even if that is not entirely true.
This does not invalidate their statements. Sometimes they’re right. However, our extensive experience teaches us to read not only the content of a statement, but also the context of the person making it.
What positions are open? What economic incentives exist behind that message? At what point in the cycle does that statement occur?
Good journalism doesn’t repeat what the source says; it gives readers the information they need to read between the lines, contrast, and form their own criteria.
Our Motivation: What do our readers need to know?
Eleven years later, the market remains volatile, complex, fascinating, and sometimes unforgiving to those who don’t respect it.
We will continue reporting as usual. There’s no elation when it goes up, and there’s no drama when it comes down. The same compass question we used from the beginning: What do readers need to know to make better decisions?
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
