The behavior of Bitcoin whales in the face of the current price rally is determining the direction of the market. After weeks of uncertainty, large investors have made a clear decision.
In lieu of massive capital outflows to capitalize on recent gains, data from analytics firm CryptoQuant Clarifying maintenance scenarios that strengthen the pricing structure.
This move suggests that key players in the ecosystem view BTC as a platform for deeper valuation, rather than its current value as an upper limit.
After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025; Bitcoin undergoes correction, after weeks of sideways movement. Currently, BTC is showing early signs of recovery. Last Monday, January 5th, the price of Bitcoin achieved a rebound reaching $94,700.
This movement focused on “whales,” entities that accumulate more than 1,000 coins. Bitcoin whales’ reaction to the price increase was not mass selling, but caution.
Low selling pressure from institutional investors on Bitcoin
CryptoQuant Community Analyst CoinDream said, “Despite the recent price rebound, interaction between whales and exchanges is actually decreasing instead of increasing.”
The expert claims that “even after the recovery, whale activity on the exchange remains at a relatively low level.”
“This suggests that selling pressure from large holders remains limited, supporting a structurally sound market environment,” according to their analysis.
The importance of this data lies in the fact that “historically, increased Bitcoin whale activity on exchanges has often served as a bearish signal as it tends to precede greater selling pressure,” Coindream says.
However, analysts have charted that while the price of Bitcoin is about to recover (the black line is rising slightly at the end), whale inflows to the exchange have decreased significantly (the blue area is collapsing). This divergence indicates that Bitcoin whales’ intention with this recent price increase is to bet on long-term growth and preserve their assets.
Typically, when the price rises rapidly, whales send their Bitcoins to exchanges to make a profit (sell). The fact that flows are decreasing while prices are increasing It shows that large investors have no intention of selling yet..
From this perspective, the supply available on exchanges is not increasing at the pace of demand, which typically precedes price increases.
Perspective and psychological level
There are positive expectations regarding the price of Bitcoin. As reported by CriptoNoticias, fund manager Bill Miller IV expressed his bullish view on the asset, noting that technical indicators are starting to align. it suggests that BTC could be ready to take off again.
The investor emphasized that from his perspective, $100,000 represents an important psychological level, and a recovery could strengthen market sentiment.
To evaluate this scenario, the ratio of whales on the exchange is used. A metric that calculates the size of the top 10 deposits compared to the total deposits on the exchange platform.
A high ratio (>0.5) indicates that whales account for a large portion of the entry movement, which typically precedes price declines due to high volume sales. Conversely, a low ratio (<0.4) indicates that funds on the exchange are spread across many retail investors, suggesting low selling pressure from institutional investors.
In the following graph, multiple peaks above 0.5 are observed throughout 2025, but more precisely on the first day of January 2026 (including Monday, January 5th). Binance’s whale ratio has hit an all-time low, dropping to 0.35.
This indicates that although the total flow of whales is decreasing, some of the moves taking place on the exchange may be primarily driven by small investors. Meaning a healthier distribution of deposits and lower risk of institutional investors selling.
Although there are occasional peaks in whale activity (purple line), the price line (black) has rebounded strongly. This situation indicates that there is enough buying liquidity to override the whale’s selling intent at the $92,000 to $94,000 level.
The lack of mass flights by whales to exchanges during this January rally suggests that investor confidence is maturing. If Bitcoin holds firm above psychological resistance and institutional investor flows move away from sales platforms, the technical structure favors a continuation of the bullish trend.
