Questions are being raised about the price of Bitcoin (BTC). Has the bullish cycle finished? Was the historic biggest (ATH) that reached on January 20th, the highest point that Bitcoin could reach in 2025? Or is it going up more?
Through data analysis On-chain Once you reach some conclusions, you can try to explain what is happening with Bitcoin and explain in detail future predictions.
GlassNode, which specializes in on-chain analysis of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, said, “We were in the phase where Bitcoin entered a strong distribution phase of investors in early January, and the accumulation trend confirmed persistent pressure on sellers.”
Second, the company shows that “maximum volatility, weak demand and liquidity restrictions will resume large accumulation and enhance downward risk.”
One of the indicators GlassNode uses to reach these conclusions is the “accumulation propensity score.” The graph shows the past methods. Several accumulation cycles followed by distribution stages It historically leads to weaker price action.
In the image below, it is observed The latest distribution stage began in January 2025 And it’s still ongoing:
Report details:
«The periodic behavior of Bitcoin is the product of the accumulation and distribution stages, with the rotation of capital between different groups of investors rotating over time. The accumulation propensity score tracks these changes. Values near 1 (dark purple) indicate significant accumulation, while those near 0 (yellow) indicate distribution. The accumulation propensity score is currently maintained below 0.1, indicating sustained pressure on the seller side».
GlassNode, an on-chain data supplier company.
What’s more, GlassNode analysts rely on Cost-based delivery heat map. This map visualizes where a concentration of offers has been formed at various price ranges. GlassNode explains this as “helps identifying areas of possible support or resistance.”
Next, you can see the heat map mentioned above.
In that graphics, GlassNode analyst details, “market participants actively accumulated BTC during the set-off period from mid-December to late February, especially in the price range of $95,000-$98,000.”
For experts, “This buying behavior in Falls suggests that investors still firmly believe in the upward trend and interpret the set fold as a temporary break before a new increase.”
But that wasn’t what happened Since mid-February, conditions have hardened to a deterioration stage, and trust in accumulation has hardened.
Several factors reported in a timely manner by encryption have influenced the movements of these markets. Among them, the “Tax War” was unleashed by the hacking of Bibit, the US President, Donald Trump, and the Federal Reserve’s rejection to lower interest rates.
For all of that, BTC was below the important level of $92,000. This represents the Hodler cost base in the short term, according to GlassNode data.
This fall was different from the previous fall:
“Unlike the previous stage, there was no significant purchase response for falls this time, indicating that feelings have changed to risk aversion and capital preservation instead of continuous accumulation.”
GlassNode, an on-chain data supplier company.
GlassNode analysts conclude that the lateral market can be extended over time based on the data they collect and process. “The lack of purchases at the lowest level suggests that capital revolving is ongoing, and could lead to a longer integration or correctional phase before the market finds a robust support base,” they say.
“New buyers are now reluctant to absorb the pressure on the seller.
In this context, the case of GlassNode It is very important to assess the degree of fear among short-term investorsespecially among those who have recently entered the market. “Understanding the behavior of this group will help market analysts identify moments of extreme fatigue for sellers who have historically presented opportunities to long-term investors,” GlassNode says.
To this end, analysts study the gain ratio of exits spent by short-term holders (STH-SAPR). This measures whether short-term Hodler spends on gain (SOPR greater than 1) or loss (below SOPR).
For this metric, the report shows:
«STH-SAPR’s 196-hour mobile average remains below 1, suggesting that most short-term investors are suffering losses. At an extreme moment, STH-SAPR fell to 0.97 when the price collapsed, highlighting the severity of the surrender ».
GlassNode, an on-chain data supplier company.
Therefore, according to data analyzed by GlassNode, There is a permanent downward impulse that “it left new investors in suspense and led to massive sales for panic with losses.”.
While this appears to be negative and even catastrophic, the GlassNode report states that “such conditions often precede local fatigue in vendors. This is the dynamics that long-term investors can monitor to seek potential opportunities for reimport.”
What is the background behind this lateral basista movement?
For GlassNode, we evaluate the current bear phase depth. Company analysts also perform evaluations using a variety of statistical bands based on the cost base of short-term Hodlers.
As can be seen in the graph above, The lower limits by the established model range between $71,300 and $91,900. For GlassNode, “The possibility of forming a temporary minimum in this area is important, at least in the short term.”
But… wasn’t Bitcoin digital gold?
I’ve said all this, some readers may wonder Why Bitcoin has this corrective phase (along with traditional stock markets) Probably in the case of “digital gold” It is designed to resist against disadvantaged macroeconomic scenarios.
Bitcoin’s promise as an innovative asset is a kind of shelter for inflation and financial instability, and has been a fundamental pillar of its advocate discourse since Nakamoto Atoshi presented him to the world in 2009.
However, current data shows the incredibleness of BTC under saleswomen, not the strength that many (e.g. writer Robert Kiyosaki) had hoped for in the context of global uncertainty. What’s going on? Is it a contradiction in your story, or is it just a stage in the path to maturity? Let’s explore that.
Bitcoin is known as “digital gold” due to its unique characteristics.: The offer is limited to 21 million units, and is independent of government or central banks, and its distributed network is resistant to operations. In theory, these qualities position them as ideal candidates to act as value preparation, especially in times of economic crisis, uncontrolled inflation, or distrust in traditional institutions.
Meanwhile, physical gold has reconsolidated ancient history as a safe haven, breaking the $3,000 per ounce barrier in March 2025 and reuniting as the king of safe assets in the midst of a convulsing economic situation. If Bitcoin is aiming for that throne, why isn’t he shining the same way?
The answer is not simple, but you can start with the current context. The world is facing economic and geopolitical storms. Donald Trump, a “customs war” promoted by the President of the United States, is creating uncertainty in the global market. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to not cutting interest rates, and inflation remains a sustained challenge.
In this environment, Assets considered “risk” – As technical action, cryptocurrency, and yes, Bitcoin – They tend to suffer. When investors seek security, they run towards gold, treasure debt, dollars and BTC despite their promises.
For the most passionate bitcoiner, this may seem like a betrayal to the nature of the asset. They argue that Bitcoin should not be judged about its actions in the short term, but about its long-term potential.
And they are not for a reason. If we observe their history, the BTC has shown an impressive bullish trend since its creation, surpassing the post-crisis crisis and increasing its value in over a decade.
The purchasing power of Fear currency, global debt growing without the brakes, and inflation that erodes the printing of excess money by central banks is exactly the evil that Bitcoin is designed to fight. In a world where traditional money loses value, BTC should be a stable lighthouse. But for now, the market is not treating it that way.
Why is there this disconnect between theory and reality? One key is perception and maturity. Gold has been a shelter for thousands of years;Its value is recorded in the collective spirit of humanity. You can touch it, see it, and save it under the mattress if you wish.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a newcomer: Only 16 years oldit’s still a teenager in the financial world. For many, it is still an abstract, cloud-dwelling concept, maintained by code and nodes that not everyone understands. This lack of concrete creates psychological barriers. Gold instantly stimulates confidence, but Bitcoin requires technology and a jump in faith in a decentralized future that has not yet reached.
Furthermore, market behavior reflects the struggles of the narrative. What exactly is Bitcoin? For some, it is the currency of daily trading. For others, speculative assets for traders. And long-term value reserves for the growing group. The lack of consensus among investors makes prices vulnerable to fluctuations in the risk market.
When economic turmoil hits with current tariffs and high rates, gold rises because its role is clear. It is an antidote to uncertainty. Bitcoin, on the other hand, does not have such defined scripts (at least according to a general market perspective). It can shine with the euphoria of innovation, and sometimes it can lead to panic in speculative assets. This year, Chaos Rules and Gold will bring benefits.
Bitcoin offers great investment opportunities at low prices
However, not everything is discouraged. There are signs of that Bitcoin is laying the foundation for a stronger future as a shelter. Its network is stronger than ever – hashrates are near historic maximums, and its adoption grows even between institutions and governments.
Each economic crisis strengthens the narrative as an alternative to the traditional financial system. The recent historical aphorism of gold could be a sign of future signs. When the world seeks safety, rare and reliable assets tend to stand out. Bitcoin has those qualities, but he needs time for the market to fully recognize it.
Let’s consider the current cycle. We are in March 2025, just a few months after half of 2024. This is an event that has historically promoted the Bitcoin buse cycle. In the past, these periods have taken over BTC to new maximums, and some analysts believe this cycle is not over yet.
By the end of the year, it was able to rebound to over $120,000. But even if that happens, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Bitcoin is accepted as a gold-style shelter. It could simply be the result of speculation. It is investors who see profit opportunities rather than massive adoption as value preparation. To reach that status, BTC needs more than a gathering. There needs to be a deep change in how the world perceives it.
This is where an interesting paradox comes into play. Bitcoin does not act as “digital gold” in the short term, but its long-term actions tell a different story (As seen in this same publication, some paragraphs above, at historic prices of Bitcoin prices).
Since its creation, Bitcoin has overcome countless obstacles – bans, hackeo to platforms, exchanges continue to collapse. At a wider period, BTC protects the purchasing power of those who have «Hodleado»Faced with inflation and devaluation of the Phili currency. In that sense, he already fulfills some of his promises as a shelter, but only for those who have the patience to look beyond the monthly or annual corrections.
So, Is Bitcoin really “digital gold”? Yes, but not in the perfect sense that many people imagine. Gold took thousands of years to integrate as a financial security standard. Bitcoin has been around for over 10 and a half years.
It could be: scheduled rarity, decentralization, resistance to censorship makes it unique. But for the market to embrace it as a massive shelter, it needs to mature, gain confidence and, above all, have time. Gold shines at $3,000 this year in 2025, and Bitcoin has struggled to find a floor between $71,000 and $91,000, but the gap between them is clear. But that gap is not eternal.
The future of Bitcoin as “digital gold” depends not only on its technology, but on how global perception evolves. Every time a crisis strikes and a traditional system fails, BTC gains ground. Perhaps this bullish cycle does not fully fulfill that promise, but it fulfills every step that brings it closer. Gold shows what happens when the world seeks safety. Bitcoin is patient and can follow that path.
(tagstotranslate) Analysis and research
