Bank of America projects real U.S. GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, supported by five different tailwinds. Meanwhile, JP Morgan highlighted various headwinds to the macroeconomic situation next year.
BofA’s forecast includes OBBBA fiscal policy that adds about 0.5 points through consumer spending and business investment, delayed Fed cuts to spur activity in the second half of the year, more pro-growth trade policy, sustained AI investment, and base effects that boost measured output.
In addition, headline PCE rose to 2.6%, core to 2.8%, unemployment rose to 4.3%, inflation took a moderately persistent soft landing, and the Fed is in the middle of an easing cycle.
For stock bulls, that’s like a long-term license. The question for Bitcoin holders is whether 2.4% growth will be achieved through lower real yields and expanded liquidity, which have historically driven Bitcoin’s rally, or whether tariffs and deficit pressure will make the real yield environment too restrictive for non-yielding assets to shine.
JPMorgan has drawn a risk map that could turn BofA’s base case into a more difficult situation.
The S&P 500 rose about 14% in 2025 due to the AI craze, but there will be a stress point in 2026. The Supreme Court’s review of President Donald Trump-era tariffs, which generate about $350 billion in annual revenue, is directly tied to the projected 6.2% GDP deficit.
US-China tensions and China’s influence over critical minerals pose a risk of stagflationary supply shocks. The 2026 midterm elections could flip the House of Representatives, raising the possibility of a stalemate.
Initial labor market tensions and cost-of-living pressures may dampen consumption even if GDP is positive.
BofA and JPMorgan are describing the same picture, moderate growth, above-target inflation, and partial Fed easing, but BofA is leaning toward tailwinds, while JPMorgan warns that the regime is fragile.
Why real yields determine Bitcoin’s path
The important variable for Bitcoin is not whether GDP is 2.0% or 2.4%, but where the inflation-adjusted yield is.
According to S&P Global research, since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a clear negative correlation with real yields, outperforming when policy is eased and liquidity expands.
21Shares analysis shows that in the post-ETF era, BTC is being traded as a macro asset, with pricing reflecting ETF flows and liquidity rather than just on-chain fundamentals.
Binance’s macro explanation explains it clearly. Bitcoin “grows when liquidity is abundant and real yields are low or negative.” Because this is when investors pay for long-term zero-yield assets.
Current levels of real yields complicate the bullish case. 2025 two-year and 10-year TIPS yields are near the high end of the 15-year range. As real yields soar, cash and Treasuries offer attractive positive real returns.
Crypto analysts believe that a decline in real yields is a precondition for a resurgence in the BTC leg. In other words, as real yields decline, capital rotates into growth and high-beta exposures.
Forecasts show policy rates settling in the mid-3% range by the end of 2026, suggesting real interest rates could turn slightly positive if inflation goes as BofA plans. This is slower than the hiking peak in 2022-23, but not in the negative territory like in 2020.
The question is whether that gradual easing will lower real yields from current levels, or whether real yields will remain fixed due to tariffs and deficit pressure.
ETF flows as a transmission mechanism
BlackRock’s IBIT and its peers are a major conduit for U.S. Bitcoin demand.
Daily movements can exceed $1 billion in both inflows and outflows.
As real yields fall and the dollar weakens, capital flows return to risk, and ETFs amplify that movement. If yields spike on tariffs or deficit concerns, the tide could reverse just as sharply.
Just as ETF flows provide a buffer against retail selling pressure, the fund’s structure could make Bitcoin more sensitive to macro shifts. Traditional portfolios can now express a real yield view through BTC exposure as easily as rotating into technology or commodities.
Furthermore, the correlation between Bitcoin and risk-on sentiment is increasing. In 2022, Bitcoin followed the decline in global liquidity due to central bank tightening. From 2023 to 2025, liquidity was restored.
If BofA’s envisioned clean easing in 2026 materializes, ETF flows will support upside. If JPMorgan’s risks materialize and real yields remain high, the same channel will amplify the downside.
Mapping JPMorgan’s risk to the real yield curve
JPMorgan’s tariffs, China and political risks are not abstract. These are transmission channels that can keep real yields higher than implied by 2.4% growth alone.
UBS’s analysis warns that tariffs are likely to cause inflation to continue rising into the first half of 2026, with core PCE peaking at around 3.2% and potentially remaining above 2% until 2027.
If nominal yields remain sticky while inflation declines slowly, the TIPS curve will remain at the upper end of its recent range.
That is exactly the environment that analysts perceive as hostile to Bitcoin. Real yields are high enough that cash and short-term bonds offer attractive returns and compete directly with non-yielding assets.
Tariff uncertainty adds an additional layer. If the Supreme Court upholds the current structure, revenues will support deficit spending but import inflation will be maintained. If tariffs are lifted, the budget deficit could widen and the financial curve could rise due to supply concerns.
Either outcome could complicate the Fed’s easing path and could cause real yields to rise more than stock market prices for an extended period of time.
China’s control of critical minerals poses the risk of stagflation-distorting supply shocks, including slower growth, higher inflation, and tighter conditions.
This combination has historically crushed risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The 2026 midterm elections will further increase political instability. Taken together, these risks paint a picture of a world where paper growth of 2.4% coexists with a long period of rising real yields, where Bitcoin competes with U.S. Treasuries rather than leading them.
conditional answer
If BofA’s world comes together cleanly with 2.4% growth, OBBBA spending boost, AI capex, moderate but slightly above-target inflation, and continued Fed cuts into 2026, the odds are that Bitcoin will benefit rather than decline.
This combination typically means lower real yields and easier financial conditions. Bitcoin tends to rise in these environments, especially now that ETF rails allow traditional portfolios to express their macro views quickly.
Falling real yields pull capital out of bonds and into long-term, high-beta assets. The flow of ETFs amplifies that movement. BTC is ahead of the easing, not behind it.
If tariffs keep inflation high, Supreme Court uncertainty disrupts earnings assumptions, US-China tensions shock supply chains, medium-term politics threaten risk sentiment, and JPMorgan’s world prevails, 2.4% growth on paper could still coexist with long-term real yields.
The opportunity cost of holding BTC remains high for a positive real TIPS yield of 4% to 5%, and ETF flows will likely remain intermittent or negative. Bitcoin will decline amid macro strength. That’s because that strength comes with inflation and yield pressures, making competing assets more attractive.
The 2.4% US growth figure itself is neither bullish nor bearish for Bitcoin.
The real story is whether that growth will be driven by lower real yields and increased liquidity (in which case BTC will be the main beneficiary) or by tariff-driven, deficit-fueled inflation and sticky real yields (in which case Bitcoin will end up competing with the Treasury for funds rather than capturing the flow of funds from the Treasury).
BofA provided the tailwind and JPMorgan provided the way for the tailwind to stall. In the case of Bitcoin, the difference between these two worlds is not measured in GDP points. It is measured in basis points on the TIPS curve and billions of dollars in ETF flow reversals. That’s the hinge.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
