Although Writer’s LIT token has not yet begun public trading, the market is already drawing a sharp line over its valuation after Tuesday’s airdrop.
Traders are divided on whether the Ethereum-based Layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX)’s new governance token deserves a fully diluted valuation closer to $2 billion or closer to $3 billion.
Fully diluted valuation (FDV) estimates the total market value of a token if all tokens were issued and circulated by multiplying their price by the maximum possible supply.
According to CoinMarketCap, pre-market trading has LIT around $3.20, suggesting FDV will exceed $3 billion, but prediction markets are telling a more cautious story.
Recent low-float launches such as Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement have ballooned headline valuations into billions of dollars even as most tokens remain locked, making FDV serve less as a proxy for real demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can easily be distorted without close attention to liquidity and tokenomics.
At Polymarket, traders see an almost even chance that LIT will surpass a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion the day after its release, but market data shows that those lofty price targets have collapsed after the October crash, dampening hopes for a $4 billion or $6 billion outcome.
By comparison, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token debuted last November with an FDV of approximately $4.2 billion.
Lighter’s average daily perpetual trading volume over the past week was about $2.7 billion, ranking it behind Hyperliquid and Aster, according to Dune data.
