Tokenized real-world assets reached $19.72 billion on January 9th, the closest the market is to the $20 billion mark.
This number measures decentralized assets, which are tokens that circulate on-chain and can be transferred between users’ wallets. As a result, an additional $19.78 billion of active private credit loans will be excluded. These are tracked as represented assets on-chain for record-keeping purposes, but open transfers are not possible.
The decentralized RWA market is divided into three segments. U.S. Treasuries and money market funds account for the majority, with on-chain collateral accounting for $8.86 billion. Tokenized goods, led by gold, have reached nearly $4 billion.
The remainder consists of $2.84 billion in institutional funds, $2.32 billion in distributed private credit tokens, $801 million in tokenized stocks, and $880 million in bonds, representing an experimental edge. Growth is explosive here, but issuer concentration remains extreme.
Measuring $307.6 billion individually, stablecoins are smaller than the entire RWA stack and serve as liquidity rails to which tokenized assets are connected.
The last 12 months have rewritten our trajectory. National debt has approximately doubled. Institutional funds increased eightfold. Private Credit’s distributed tokens primarily represent participation in loans, with active loans of $19.78 billion, an increase of 100% from the estimated $9.88 billion in January 2025, reflecting actual lending activity that generates yield.
Treasury fixes stack
Tokenized US Treasuries rose from an estimated $3.95 billion in January 2025 to $8.86 billion by January 2026, an increase of 125%. BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund surpassed $2 billion in April 2025, one year after its launch, and had distributed $100 million in dividends as of December of the same year.
Binance accepted BUIDL as collateral in November, and Ethena’s USDtb stablecoin currently has 90% of its reserves backed by BUIDL tokens.
JPMorgan launched its own tokenized money market fund MONY on Ethereum in December, with a seed size of $100 million. Pattern: Financial institutions treat tokenized U.S. Treasuries as programmable cash.
Smart contracts automate interest payments, redemptions occur 24/7, and tokens move peer-to-peer without intermediaries. While the tokenized segment remains insignificant compared to the $28 trillion in outstanding U.S. debt, infrastructure is expanding faster than adoption.
Institutional funds deliver growth rates
Institutional alternative funds increased 714% from approximately $350 million to $2.84 billion.
Centrifuge holds a market share of 34.29% and Securitize controls 31.02%. This concentration means that partnership decisions by a few tokenization providers can drive the entire category.
These funds bring private equity, credit, and structured products on-chain with a familiar regulatory framework. While tokenization reduces the friction of secondary transactions and enables fractional ownership, yields are still attractive at 8% to 12%. Additionally, the transparency of on-chain payments is attractive to institutional compliance teams.
The problem is that liquidity depends on the issuer. Most secondary markets rely on redemption mechanisms controlled by fund managers rather than open order books.
An academic analysis in 2025 found that trading volumes of tokenized assets are low despite increasing market capitalization. Until more exchanges offer compliant secondary trading, institutional funds will gain scale through issuance rather than true market making.
Gold rules commodities, stocks show velocity
Tokenized goods have grown from about $1.06 billion to nearly $4 billion, driven almost entirely by gold. Demand surged 227% as precious metals hit record highs, with PAXG and XAUT accounting for over 80% of commodity activity.
Tokenized public equity increased by 218% from approximately $250 million to $801.36 million.
Ondo Finance controls 51.6% by value. Even though the market capitalization was not very high, the monthly remittance amount reached $2.66 billion, indicating high turnover. Active addresses decreased by 26% over 30 days, suggesting that participation is concentrated among a smaller number of more active traders.
The total amount of bonds is $193.31 million, with 14,300 holders. CashLink holds 62.49% and JP Morgan holds 25.86%. Government debt outside the United States is $686.66 million, with Spico accounting for 80.72%.
These are proof-of-concept deployments that test the infrastructure before institutions commit larger pools of capital.
Ethereum leads, Stellar grows rapidly
Ethereum holds $12.6 billion, or 64.51% of the decentralized RWA market. BNB Chain was worth $2.02 billion (10.37%), Solana was worth $924.59 million (4.75%), Stella was worth $829.48 million (4.26%), and Arbitrum was worth $745.92 million (3.83%).
Stellar grew 28.% in 30 days, making it the fastest growing of the major chains. Meanwhile, Solana increased by 16.56% and BNB Chain by 12.11%.
Ethereum’s dominance reflects first-mover advantage and institutional familiarity. BlackRock launched BUIDL on Ethereum before expanding to seven other blockchains.
Nevertheless, multi-chain strategies are accelerating.
Almost 70% of BUIDL’s assets are currently located outside of Ethereum, deployed wherever users and liquidity converge. Interoperability providers like Wormhole enable seamless cross-chain transfers. This becomes important when liquidity becomes fragmented across the network.
Private Credit: Two Measures, One Market
Private Credit marks a methodological change for RWA.xyz in 2025. The platform currently distinguishes between “decentralized” assets, which are tokens that circulate on-chain and can be transferred between user wallets, and “representative” assets, which use the blockchain as a record-keeping layer without enabling open transfer.
Private Credit’s circulating value of $2.32 billion represents the tradeable and transferable portion of the Loan Participation Token. The nearly $20 billion in active loans represents that the underlying lending activity is tracked on-chain but is not freely transferable.
Active loans increased from an estimated $9.88 billion in January 2025, representing a 100% increase. Cumulative loan originations reached $36.29 billion across platforms including Figure ($14.48 billion active), Tradable ($2.3 billion active), and Maple ($1.63 billion active).
Borrowers pay an average APR of 10.14%. This figure is dominated by 73% of active loans running on the Provenance blockchain. Tradable accounts for 12% of ZKSync Era, and Maple accounts for 8% of Ethereum, Solana, and Base overall.
The distinction between distributed and phenotypic is important because it reveals how tokenization serves different functions.
Decentralized private credit tokens enable secondary trading of loan participations, creating liquidity in an illiquid asset class. Representative Assets uses blockchain for transparency, coordination, and operational efficiency without exposing loans to open market transactions.
Most private credit remains in the “agency” category, as lenders prefer controlled distribution to open secondary markets.
Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said in late 2025 that the majority of transactions will eventually be settled on-chain.
The private credit exam tests that paper. Efficiency increases significantly when loan origination, servicing, and settlement are done entirely on-chain using decentralized tokens.
However, before the market expands beyond its current distribution size of $2.32 billion, storage of debt instruments, collateral management, and legal enforcement in the event of bankruptcy all need greater clarity.
$30 billion to $57 billion distributed by 2027
Decentralized RWA could reach $30.8 billion (bearish), $41.4 billion (base), or $57 billion (bullish) by the end of 2027, assuming annual growth rates of 25%, 45%, and 70%, respectively.
Tokenized US Treasuries expand to $13.8 billion (bearish) or $19.9 billion (bullish). The Private Credit decentralized token could reach $3.6 billion (bearish) or $6.4 billion (bullish), while the underlying active loans, measured separately as a representative asset, could reach $28.5 billion (bearish) or $50.6 billion (bullish).
The bullish case requires certain catalysts, including a clear path for tokenized funds distribution in major jurisdictions, increased compliant secondary trading venues, and deeper integration of U.S. Treasuries as collateral across on-chain credit protocols.
Whether private credit evolves from representative to decentralized will depend on whether lenders embrace open secondary markets for loan participation or prefer controlled and permitted transfer mechanisms.
Those catalysts are becoming a reality. The UK’s FCA has indicated that it will launch a virtual currency licensing gateway in September 2026. Barclays backed Ubyx as a tokenized money infrastructure. Visa and JPMorgan are experimenting with SolanaRail.
The bearish case assumes continued infrastructure delays and regulatory uncertainty.
The issue of custody remains central. Traditional custodians continue to build interoperability capabilities with digital wallets, smart contract governance, and tokenization platforms.
What will really drive the next 18 months?
Whether 2027 looks like a base case or a bull case depends on four factors.
First, tokenized U.S. Treasuries should become standard collateral across major trading venues and lending platforms. BlackRock’s expansion to eight blockchains and integration with Ethena’s stablecoin infrastructure is the template.
Second, tokenized funds should solve secondary market problems. Although institutional alternative funds are growing eight times faster than other segments, liquidity remains tied to issuer redemptions. This segment will accelerate if regulated venues support order book trading of tokenized fund shares.
Third, custodial and payment infrastructure must be specialized. Agencies clearly allocate assets that can be securely stored and audited.
Progress is being made, with Zodia, Copper, and Fireblocks building enterprise-grade solutions, but adoption will take time.
Fourth, we need deeper stablecoin integration. Approximately $308 billion of stablecoins are the liquidity base of RWA.
The GENIUS Act provides clarity and the platform embeds stablecoins as payment rails.
China has announced that it will pay interest on the digital yuan, clearly targeting the dollar stablecoin competition. RWA will benefit if U.S. stablecoins remain competitive.
The $20 billion milestone is a marketing number. What matters is whether the infrastructure supporting that $20 billion can handle $50 billion without breaking down.
Last year proved that issuance grows rapidly when financial institutions commit. The next 18 months will test whether the market’s depth, custody rail and regulatory framework can support its weight.
