The Fed decision on Wednesday is being awaited by Americans, but depending on Polymarket Bettors. One investor bet 7K of 25bps on the decline in interest rates. However, the odds are heading in a different direction.
According to a large number of polymaquet bettors (98%), the Fed does not change interest rates. Meanwhile, 1.9% of traders believe the Fed will lower the rate by 25bps. If the latter passes, trader You can make $400,000. But that’s almost impossible.
If the Fed cuts its fees tomorrow, this guy would make $400,000.
He bets $7k.
Money pit or Trade of the Year? pic.twitter.com/n4tcd6qft7
– Polymarket (@polymarket) May 6, 2025
Trump’s volatile implementation of America’s highest tariffs over a century has devastated consumer and business trust, slowed manufacturing, and caused a major rush in imports. This has brought the United States closer to the possibility of a recession.
Jerome Powell has shown no interest in lowering the fees, not after the insult that Trump is throwing at him. He made it clear he was not in a hurry. But never say it.
Interest rates are not expected to change anytime soon – blame tariffs
Rates could remain the same at the Federal Reserve meeting on May 6-7. This will be the third consecutive meeting. Eight times a year, the US Central Banks come together to talk about economic health and make decisions on monetary policy. These decisions affect federal funding rates, the interest rates US banks use to lend and borrow money overnight.
Fed chair Jerome Powell Before cutting, he made it clear that he would keep an eye on the job market and inflation. There is too much doubt about the impact of the Trump administration’s economic plan, particularly the trade war and government cuts.
in the end, The official federal Reserve mission is to stabilize prices and keep jobs at a high level. Ultimately, the Fed is stabilizing interest rates to see how tariffs and other actions taken by the Trump administration will affect these key metrics over time.
Since December, the Fed has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%. Federal Reserve policymakers forecast from March shows that prices will fall twice this year. However, these predictions seem outdated as there was so much trade news.
Fed officials believe tariffs will raise both inflation and unemployment, but it is not clear how long or how long there will be. So far, economic data does not show that the country is collapsing. Even in the US GDP fELLs rose 0.3% per year in the last quarter, but consumer spending still rose at a rate of 1.8%.
Additionally, on Friday, the Labor Bureau released its scheduled employment report. It showed that in April, US companies added 177,000 jobs. This means about 40,000 more people than expected. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
“The Fed’s monetary policy depends on either side of mission, inflation or employment, and is the farthest from its goal.” said Matthew Martin, senior US economist.
Economists are still worried that taxes will raise prices even further. In the meantime, Americans are cutting their spending because they fear a recession, and investors are coming out of the stock market as they are falling so quickly.
Americans worry about jobs, taxes, prices, social services and everything else that affect their ability to make money.
The Fed will not change interest rates tomorrow, but the way it speaks and acts will have a big impact on the market. Talks of risk and uncertainty can surprise investors and cause a chain reaction in the economy.
