Cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin price is approaching an important threshold in terms of investor behavior.
The company said Bitcoin is trading around $81,500, which is considered the average cost to investors. They warn that a break below this level could increase market selling pressure and lead to a deeper pullback.
CryptoQuant noted in its analysis that Bitcoin’s current price level is not only a psychological threshold, but also represents the average cost for investors to actually enter the market. This metric, called True Market Average Price (TMMP), reflects the average purchase price on-chain, excluding miners. Historically, this level has served as the market’s “equilibrium point.” If Bitcoin remains above this level, investors will feel more secure and any pullback will be viewed as a buying opportunity. However, once the price falls below TMMP, this level often acts as resistance, and investors who bought at average cost may use the pullback as an exit opportunity.
Another notable metric in our analysis is the AVIV ratio. This indicator focuses solely on investor profitability by comparing active market capitalization and realized market capitalization. CryptoQuant describes the AVIV Ratio as a sentiment and positioning indicator based on on-chain behavior rather than price momentum. It notes that current AVIV levels resemble “medium-term trends” seen in past cycles. During such periods, the market does not experience sharp crashes or exhibit strong uptrends. Prices tend to move sideways, volatility decreases, and investors quietly rebalance their positions.
According to CryptoQuant, this process marks a key stage where weak confidence is emerging in the market. If Bitcoin manages to rise above the TMMP level around $81,500 and the AVIV rate stabilizes in the 0.8-0.9 range, this would indicate that investors are absorbing supply and protecting cost levels. This scenario is considered a positive signal in terms of maintaining the current trend. Conversely, a decline in prices below TMMP and a continued tightness in AVIV rates could indicate declining profitability and declining investor confidence. This usually leads to the exploration of new demands at lower levels.
*This is not investment advice.
