Bitcoin (BTC)’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has fallen below its 200-day SMA, a move known in technical analysis as a “death cross.”
This pattern is often interpreted as a sign that bullish momentum has run out. and possible confirmation of a bearish trend.
A chart provided by TradingView shows how Bitcoin prices have plummeted in recent weeks, accelerating the crossover between both moving averages.
Death crosses generally indicate that short-term behavior is weakening relative to long-term trends.
but, This pattern does not guarantee bearish continuation. In previous cycles, this signal generated false alarms, especially when markets were reacting to exogenous factors or temporary volatility.
Despite the previously negative outlook, some analysts maintain a more moderate stance. Among them is Carmelo Alemán, on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant.
He believes the current market downturn does not reflect true sales. He explained: “This downward trend is forced, not real, and does not represent actual sales.”
Mr. Aleman said that market sentiment has become overly bearish and that in such a scenario, Usually the opposite of what most people expect happens.
“These drops are being purchased by holders of 100-1,000 BTC (sharks and dolphins) and holders of 1,000-10,000 BTC (whales and humpbacks),” he points out.
Additionally, it shows that miners maintain reserves of approximately 1.8 million Bitcoins. This suggests that there is no selling pressure from that sector.
Based on these observations, Aleman estimates that: Bitcoin may regain ground in the short termwith widespread stabilization of the ecosystem. The cross of death remains a relevant indicator, but its interpretation requires additional context. Especially in environments where on-chain activity suggests accumulation rather than distribution.
