As reported by CriptoNoticias, Iceberg Quantum recently published a technical study on the Pinnacle architecture. Their research estimated the possibility of cracking the RSA-2048 encryption with just 100,000 physical qubits with the necessary hardware. This number represents a 10x reduction from last year’s estimates. This breakthrough uses quantum low parity density (qLDPC) codes. These codes optimize error correction in hardware.
Dr. Hugh Bitt’s X account, called @Cat_States, spread these results and warned that “the quantum threat timeline is narrowing.” According to his publications, The number of qubits needed for decoding “continues to decrease”. The analyst argues that quantum computers associated with cryptography are “no longer a distant theoretical threat.”
RSA-2048 is an encryption that protects data by making it difficult to factor large prime numbers. Scholl’s algorithm, on the other hand, can break the encryption on a sufficiently powerful computer and uses quantum logic to find these elements exponentially. This method finds the periodicity of a complex mathematical function and extracts the key. Until now, running Shor required millions of physical qubits to correct certain errors. The Pinnacle architecture optimizes this process through strategic use. qLDPC code. These codes significantly reduce the additional costs required for Shor to operate reliably.
Evolving quantum requirements: 2012 to 2026
To reduce the hardware required to beat RSA-2048, follow a clear optimization sequence. Progress depends not only on better chips, but also on smarter software. This reduced the number of physical qubits needed to decode RSA-2048. The main milestones are:
- 2012 (1 billion qubits): Austin Fowler established his first major milestone. Their study of surface codes predicted that each operation would consume vast amounts of resources.
- 2017-2019 (170-230 million): Researchers such as O’Gorman and Gheorghiu have reduced this number by optimizing logic gates. They improved the circuit architecture for the Sholl operation.
- 2019 (20 million): Craig Gidney and Martin Ekerå introduced power windows. This technology has optimized the use of resources and significantly reduced requirements.
- 2025 (900,000): Gidney presented a method based on approximate residual operations. This technique allowed us to break the $1 million barrier, sacrificing execution time for space.
- 2026 (100.000): Iceberg Quantum used the qLDPC code to arrive at its current numbers. These codes manage noise 10 times more efficiently than previous methods.
The fundamental difference lies in the management of data overhead. Old surface codes required thousands of physical qubits to protect a single stable logical qubit. qLDPC code Allows for higher information density. This allows smaller machines to perform calculations that previously required theoretical supercomputers.
The Pinnacle architecture demonstrates that software can compensate for the physical limitations of current hardware. No more waiting for million-qubit processors to produce actionable results.
The state of hardware: precision and scale
Currently, Quantinum and Google leads in accuracy with results that surpass traditional computing. Quantinuum’s Helios system achieves 99.921% fidelity with 98 qubits. Google operates its Willow chip with 105 qubits and 99.8% accuracy.
IBM continues to make advances with its Heron processors. This superconducting system has 156 qubits and has a fidelity of 99.88%. on the other handneutral atom technology Prioritize hardware scale. Companies like Infleqtion and Atom Computing offer machines with more than 1,000 processing units.
- Change (scale): 1,600 qubits, 99.5% fidelity.
- Atom computing (1st generation): 1,180 qubits, 99.6% fidelity.
- QuEra (Gemini): 260 qubits, 99.5% fidelity.
Three approaches dominate the industry today: trapped ions, superconducting, and neutral atoms.
Security implications for digital assets
Shorter deadlines require immediate action in the crypto sector. Networks like Ethereum have already integrated plans for cryptography that is resistant to quantum attacks.
Many attackers currently employ a “collect now, decrypt later” strategy. Store your internet traffic encrypted In the future I would like to process. If 100,000 qubit hardware arrives before 2030, that old data will be vulnerable. The privacy of past communications depends on the current rate of quantum progress. Developers must prioritize technology sovereignty before reaching any significant mass of hardware.
Moving to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is not an optional task. The Iceberg Quantum trailer confirms that there is less room for maneuver than initially expected. If users do not migrate to addresses with new protection standards, these assets could be compromised.
(Tag to translate) Quantum computing
