Amid general unease over soaring precious metal prices, a weakening dollar, weak to sideways Bitcoin price action, geopolitical uncertainty, and a protracted trade war, some economic stressors actually appear to be relatively abated.
The canaries in the Bitcoin coalmine are still singing, and a few have begun to flap their wings, but none have fallen from their perches yet.
The air in the mine seems to still be breathable.
Indicators related to liquidity, credit, and interest rate volatility fell below stress thresholds in January amid changes in Treasury cash balances and Bitcoin ETF flows.
The National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending January 16, 2026, was -0.590, with an adjusted reading of -0.586, according to data from the Chicago Fed.
Both measurements are below the zero line, which traders watch as an indicator of tighter funding and leverage constraints, the Chicago Fed reported via FRED.
In canary terms, it’s the difference between a bird that is alert and vocal and one that is having trouble breathing. Subzero temperatures indicate that the “air” for financing and leverage is easier than average.
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4), another composite index often used to check funding and market tensions, recorded -0.651 during the same week, according to the St. Louis Fed’s STLFSI4 FRED series.
If NFCI is a mine ventilation report, STLFSI4 is a canary attitude check, still stationary and stable, without the wobble typically seen before more extensive stress.
vibration sensor is quiet
Interest rate volatility, the channel through which repricing can be transmitted across equities, credit, and cryptocurrencies through positioning and collateral mechanisms, also remains subdued.
ICE BofA $MOVE The index closed at 56.12 on January 27, 2026, according to Investing.com’s index history series.
Markets often treat a sustained rise in interest rate volatility as a precursor to broader deleveraging, even if other key indicators appear stable.
In the mining metaphor, $MOVE This is not so much a “gas detector” as it is a vibration alarm that starts rattling before the roof actually moves. So far, it’s barely making any noise.
Credit spread: No coughing fits
Credit pricing is consistent with that moderate baseline.
According to ICE BofA option-adjusted spread data published via FRED, as of January 26, 2026, U.S. high yield OAS is 2.69, U.S. corporate (IG) OAS is 0.74, and BBB OAS is 0.94.
This level does not reflect widespread default risk repricing. In other words, the credit market canaries aren’t coughing. Risk premiums appear to be contained and lenders are not demanding ‘panic pricing’ protection.
What makes the cry even more interesting is the fluid piping.
The variables that are attracting the attention of macro-oriented Bitcoin traders are located in the liquidity plumbing rather than the stress composite. If headline gauges are the “big” safety signs in a mine, these are the subtle drafts you feel in the tunnel before you see the smoke.
Total assets were $6.585 trillion as of January 21, 2026, according to Federal Reserve balance sheet data.
During the same week, the Treasury’s general account increased to $869 billion from $779 billion the previous week, but reserve balances decreased from $3.5 trillion to $2.955 trillion.
The Treasury’s cash boost will remove deposits and reserves from the banking system, potentially tightening available liquidity even as broader market stress measures subside. In canary terms, this is when the bird is still singing, but the handler notices a change in airflow. The situation can get tense at the last minute without the headline stress composite spiking right away.
The week-on-week decline in reserves is consistent with its propagation.
Additional constraints include the absence of large overnight reverse repo facility balances to absorb fluctuations in the Treasury’s cash and collateral demand, and the lack of a “shock absorber” in case something changes quickly.
Overnight RRP usage on January 27, 2026 was $1.253 billion.
Changes in cash and reserves may be more directly reflected in last-minute funding conditions, as their levels are close to zero compared to historical periods. The canaries are not unconscious, but the mine has less buffers than before.
Canary for BTC: ETF flows
Alongside these systemic variables, Bitcoin’s market-bound flow indicators have been the cycle of creation and redemption for US-listed Bitcoin ETFs.
According to Farside Investors, net flows on January 27, 2026 totaled -$102.8 million, with the January 21, 22, 23, 26, and 27 windows totaling approximately -$567.5 million.
For reference, the cumulative net flow since launch is approximately $62,816 million as of January 28, 2026.
If credit and interest volumes are structural sensors in the mine, then ETF flows are the canary most directly tied to Bitcoin’s daily oxygen supply. While the recent outflows do not themselves signal systemic stress, they do suggest birds are taking flight, and traders are watching to see whether they subside or escalate.
With a wide range of indicators still below stress thresholds, the near-term watch list for spillover volatility is focused on whether the next weekly print shows financial conditions trending toward zero in the Chicago Fed series, which typically causes the canaries to lower their chirps and begin to pick up pace.
Other markers include whether STLFSI4 accelerates toward 0; $MOVE Whether the rally sustains into the 80-100 range or the high-yield spread reprices towards 4% on a sustained basis. These are the moments when bird behavior changes from a “background chirp” to a sound warning that mine conditions are changing.
Traders track these changes, along with the continued movement of Treasury cash and reserves, through weekly reporting cycles.
Canaries listening next
The first “canary” traders should listen to after the Fed’s latest decision is the real-time market price indicator, rather than the slower weekly stress composite index.
of $MOVE Indices are often the earliest signal, capturing sudden repricing of Treasury volatility that can spill over into equities, credit, and cryptocurrencies through positioning and collateral mechanisms. In the mining metaphor, $MOVE It is a canary that responds to vibrations, the subtle tremors that can precede broad changes in circumstances.
Credit spreads, particularly high-yield OAS, are another rapidly changing pressure valve. The widening here suggests that risk premiums are starting to reprice, even if broader financial stress indicators remain subdued. That’s when the birds stop making their “normal” calls and start making ragged calls that traders learn to respect.
Especially in cryptocurrencies, where hawkish surprises tend to show up quickly in outflows, Bitcoin ETF creation and redemption flows are likely to provide the most accurate information on next-day risk appetite. When the flow returns to positive, $MOVE Although the spread remains modest, it shows that the canaries will not only survive, but may find fresh oxygen returning to the tunnels.
In contrast, indicators such as the Chicago Fed’s NFCI and the St. Louis Fed Stress Index only confirm tightening conditions with a lag in the next weekly release, with interest rate volatility, credit, and ETF flows being the most closely watched post-Fed indicators.
