Bitcoin price continues to consolidate within the $95,000 range after declining late last week. The leading cryptocurrency is experiencing a strong January performance, posting a net gain of 11.42% since the start of the new year. However, the impact of the extended pricing adjustments from the fourth quarter of 2025 will remain. Using recent on-chain data, a market analyst with the username MorenoDV_ identified a specific group of holders who are still experiencing extreme psychological stress that could impact future price trajectories.
Bitcoin Market Risk Redistribution Is In Progress – Here’s Why
In a January 17 QuickTake post, MorenoDV_ assumes that the Bitcoin bull cycle is here to stay despite negative events in the fourth quarter of 2025. Notably, the cryptocurrency market leader has experienced a major price correction of 33% since hitting an all-time high ($126,198) as of early October.
Bitcoin recorded a slight price recovery last month, but significant expectations of a bear market still remain due to declining market demand and failure to recover key technical levels such as the 365-day MA. MorenoDV uses realized price data by UTXO age band to explain that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. These positive developments counter the bearish narrative that the market cycle is over.
With the current spot price around $95,583, CryptoQuant indicators show that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. In particular, short-term holders (1M-1M and 1M-3M cohorts) realized prices of $89,255 and $93,504, respectively, above the spot price. This data suggests that these types of investors are taking profits and experiencing low market pressures, which should help keep fears in check.
However, medium-term holders of $3 million to $6 million and long-term holders of $6 million to $12 million realized prices of $114,808 and $100,748, both well above the current spot price. However, both groups of holders chose to absorb the losses and accept the inconvenience rather than initiate aggressive redistribution.
Therefore, as spot prices rise to realized price levels for these stressed groups, losses are expected to be significantly reduced, ultimately relieving pressure on this class of holders and balancing market risk. These market developments will only occur if 3m-6m and 6m-12m continue to interpret the current market downturn as a simple cyclical discomfort rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, continued bullish commentary and constructive price action is needed to prevent these investors from exiting the market.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% gain over the past week.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
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