According to market analyst David Battaglia, the key to continued success for Strategy Inc. (stock ticker: MSTR), the world’s largest corporate reserve holdings of Bitcoin (BTC), is to not sell Bitcoin under any circumstances.
Battaglia insists on his large-scale BTC accumulation strategy. It is a true bulwark that protects and enhances the true value of the strategy in the long term.. He claims that the company’s shares are currently trading at a significant discount compared to the value of its vast Bitcoin holdings, which amount to 650,000 BTC.
This discrepancy is measured by Strategy’s base net asset value (mNAV) multiple, which is as high as 0.84x. This metric compares a company’s market capitalization to its total Bitcoin reserves. As CriptoNoticias explains, a value below 1.00 means the market is valuing the entire company at a lower amount than the value of its BTC reserves.
The analyst categorically warns that “those who don’t understand the strategy can lose a lot of money.” As seen in the graph, after a 70% adjustment from historic highs. Analysts confidently state that “at this price the stock is a gift.”
His outlook is based on the upside potential that would be unleashed if the market corrected this apparent undervaluation. The company’s long-term vision is inherently tied to the revaluation of Bitcoin. If Strategy maintains its key approach of not selling its Bitcoin holdings or any portion thereof, it will be well placed to benefit from a bullish market cycle.
Battaglia faces volatility Maintain position of continuing to buy stocks unless strategy sells Bitcoinshows that “MSTR and BTC are very cheap.”
There is also skepticism about the strategy.
Despite Battaglia’s optimism, Other analysts are more cautious and even bearish.. Damir Tokic, for example, has made no secret of his skepticism, noting that he doesn’t like MSRT as an investment. “In fact, I think the company’s stock price is likely to continue to decline,” he predicts.
But he cautioned that shorting MSTR stock is “probably the riskiest strategy” and requires strict position management, and that “the appropriate course of action at this time is to take profits.” Mr. Tokic revealed that he had exited a successful bearish trade. “Short position in MSTR was my best trade of 2025 and this trade is closed.”
The analyst notes that the worst-case scenario for MSTR, in which the BTC price falls below the average purchase price and MSTR bondholders attempt to sell their bonds, “has not happened yet, but the price is still more than 50% below the 2024 price.”
Tokic concluded that if the Bitcoin price “continues to fall well below the $74,000 level, MSTR stock will continue to fall, justifying maintaining a short position in MSTR.” However, there is a real possibility that digital currencies, and by extension MSTR, will recover.he claims.
Therefore, he believes it is appropriate to close out short positions during panic selling in Bitcoin and MSTR stock, despite the possibility of further decline.
Threat of exclusion that jeopardizes strategy
Following the announcement by MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International, a provider of stock indexes and portfolio risk indicators), additional significant risks have been imposed on the strategy.
MSCI is discussing the following proposals: Excludes companies whose primary activity is financial management in Bitcoin and other digital assets from the indexHowever, only if such holdings account for 50% or more of total assets. Strategy is one of the companies directly affected by the consultation, which will run until December 31st, with an outcome expected on January 15th.
JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, said Strategy could lose billions of dollars in equity if MSCI removes it from major stock indexes.
“The decline[in MSRT stock]likely reflects growing concerns that the company will be removed from major benchmark indexes,” the bank said.
And I can’t help but mention the fact that this past weekend, Strategy CEO Phong LE revealed: Company may be able to sell Bitcoin If mNAV remains below 1 and the company is unable to meet its obligations to investors (such as paying dividends). In this way, the narrative that Strategy will never sell its BTC collapses, an idea that many believed to be undeniably true. Therefore, systemic risk is growing in the cryptocurrency ecosystem (this could be one of the reasons why Bitcoin is below $86,000)
The key to Bitcoin strategy is more than just an investment strategy, it is the destination of a heated debate in financial markets. While the accumulation model protects its long-term potential, the digital currency’s exposure to volatility and the immediate threat of being removed from stock indexes paint a picture of considerable risk for the company, which could extend to the entire Bitcoin market in the event of a “catastrophe.”
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
