Bitcoin’s sluggish price action was common during the first two weeks of November. After losing support at $100,000, all eyes are on the flagship cryptocurrency as it hovers around $95,000, another key price level. However, as the Bitcoin price struggles to regain bullish momentum, recent on-chain data points to an event that suggests near-term bullishness.
Could BTC price recovery begin in December?
In the latest Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research Japan reported that Bitcoin could soon see a clear recovery of its previous highs. To lend credence to this insight, the analytics firm revealed that stablecoin exchange holdings continue to witness rapid increases.
Historically, periods of stablecoin accumulation preceded significant price increases. For example, the DeFi company highlighted the July 2025 incident. At the time, BTC fluctuated around $100,000, while stablecoin liquidity increased exponentially. A few weeks later, Bitcoin broke through the resistance it faced and hit a price range of around $110,000.
The same pattern appeared from mid-August to the end of September. Bitcoin has shown little directional momentum after registering an increase of more than $8 billion in exchange reserves (in 30 days). However, by the end of September, the leading cryptocurrency had hit an all-time high of $126,000.
There was also a large accumulation of stablecoins in the last days of September and early October. This was also the case before Bitcoin rose to its all-time high before crashing in mid-October.
Source: CryptoQuant
On the surface, the pattern is at work, with stablecoin accumulation being a key factor, but XWIN Research explains that predicting the price reaction to these changes is not so easy. This is due to inconsistencies in Bitcoin reactions in the past. “Sometimes a response occurs within a few days, and sometimes it takes several weeks,” the agency explained.
Nonetheless, XWIN Research noted that macro events such as the upcoming December FOMC meeting could act as a trigger to revitalize dormant liquidity. Stablecoin holdings reached their highest level in 2025. This significant amount of liquidity could support a significant price recovery next time.
BTC Trading Below 365-Day MA — Is There More Pain Ahead?
In another post about X, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shared a less optimistic outlook for the market leader. The cryptocurrency expert reiterated that Bitcoin price has fallen below its annual moving average of $102,000.
Citing historical trends, Moreno reasoned that the Bitcoin market “may be at the beginning of a bearish phase because it will be very difficult to recover” from the 365-day MA failure.
As things stand, BTC may be targeting the $92,000 and $72,000 support levels. However, if significant demand enters the market, reflecting a shift in sentiment, the flagship cryptocurrency could see a miraculous turnaround in its precarious situation.
As of this writing, Bitcoin’s value is around $96,050, with no significant movement over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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