6 consecutive business daysBitwise launched the BSOL US Solana ETF on October 28th, raising $284 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum funds have seen capital outflows.
Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.7 billion over the same period, according to data from Pharcyde Investors. Ethereum products saved $473 million.
This divergence is not subtle and comes at a time when macroeconomic headwinds from the Fed’s hawkish stance and a strong dollar typically deplete risk appetite across cryptocurrencies.
Instead, the new Solana rappers absorbed a stable of productions, and the existing ones faced redemption.
The question is whether this is indicative of genuine allocator rotation, or just front-loading frenzy associated with new ETF launches, amplified by a temporary risk-off swing that made Bitcoin and Ethereum appear overextended.
Mechanism of dislocation
As of November 4, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs had recorded a combined daily outflow of approximately $797 million due to the deteriorating market conditions.
Meanwhile, Solana’s fund continued to print a small but uninterrupted stream of online works. CoinShares weekly data through October 31st tells the same story at the global ETP level.
While Bitcoin products led the outflows, Solana saw inflows of approximately $421 million, its second-biggest week on record, and this was solely due to its US launch.
Farside’s publisher-level tapes confirm patterns across sessions. Bitcoin funds experienced a multi-day outflow in early November, while Ethereum turned negative. Meanwhile, both U.S. Solana ETFs have maintained positive flows every business day since their debut.
These pieces suggest that Solana’s ability to attract capital is more than just noise.
Continued redemptions of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs mechanically reduce their share of total crypto ETF assets under management, reducing daily primary market demand for the underlying tokens.
The permanent creation of the Solana ETF will compress the available float and enhance SOL’s secondary liquidity.
If the pace of flows continues over weeks rather than days, index builders, allocators, and market makers will realign their exposures and inventories towards Solana. This tends to amplify the relative performance in both directions.
Release timing and actual demand.
The Solana flow fits neatly into the classic new product launch period, frontloading pieces on a regular basis.
Farside’s dashboard shows significant seed and conversion capital at launch, especially for Grayscale’s GSOL. The first three days were unusually strong before the pace slowed.
While Bitcoin and Ethereum outflows slow as the macro tape stabilizes, the rotation narrative collapses into a launch artifact if the post-launch run rate settles to low single-digit per day levels.
However, if US-traded Solana funds continue to absorb net creation even after seed capital is depleted, potentially resulting in four to six weeks of consecutive positive flows, while Bitcoin and Ethereum funds continue to experience outflows due to macro jitters, the reweighting becomes durable.
CoinShares has already attributed Solana’s strength last week to US ETF demand rather than any single issuer anomaly.
This combination suggests genuine allocator rotation, rather than just a startup mechanism disguised as a strategy.
Eric Balciunas noted on November 1 that BSOL led all crypto ETPs by “a mile” with $417 million in weekly flows and ranked 16th in flows across all ETFs for the week. BSOL also outperformed BlackRock’s IBIT, which had an unusual off week.
While this does mean distributions are taking place, it also shows that the newly-enfranchised allocators found room in their Solana exposure without waiting for Bitcoin or Ethereum to stabilize first.
Who will decide the final battle?
The next thing to note is the post-launch steady state of Solana creation and redemption of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If Solana maintains positive net creation even as seed flows disappear, and Bitcoin and Ethereum remain net negative in the weekly rolling window, we will treat this move as structural.
If Solana’s business tapered sideways and incumbents stabilized, this was a launch window blip amplified by a risk-off week that made everything feel more definitive than it actually was.
Stake is the gravity of distribution default and liquidity. Solana does not need to overtake Bitcoin or Ethereum in total assets to win this round. All they need to do is prove that a well-timed ETF launch can attract capital even when macroeconomic conditions are trending toward withdrawal.
If that’s the case, the lessons for the next wave of altcoin ETFs are clear. Distribution creates its own demand, and timing the launch to coincide with a drop in existing flows could accelerate that change.
Over the next month, allocators writing tickets will decide whether Solana’s ETF debut was a sign of vacancy or something out of the ordinary.
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