Since the start of the U.S. and Israeli offensive against Iran, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, silver and major U.S. stock indexes, rebounded to above $72,000 even as oil prices soared above $100 a barrel and traders lowered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
According to crypto slate Data shows that Bitcoin has risen 7.3% since the conflict began, to a one-month high of more than $73,000. The flagship digital asset has since returned to around $72,200 at the time of writing.
During the same period, gold fell to $5,091, about 4% below its level before the pre-emptive strike on Iran. Silver has fallen over 10%, dropping from over $90 to $82 at press time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1-2%.
The scorecard also places Bitcoin ahead of several traditional benchmarks during a period of heightened macro headwinds that are typical for digital assets.
Amid heightened tensions over Iran, crude oil prices have risen by about 20%, topping $100 per barrel for the first time in about four years. The dollar also strengthened, sharply reducing investors’ expectations for short-term interest rate cuts.
This backdrop typically weighs on cryptocurrencies through tighter financial conditions and a more defensive trend across global markets.
But Bitcoin’s strong rebound has garnered attention because its rally came after an initial decline and held up even as other large assets struggled to recover.
Weekend decline followed by rebound
Bitcoin’s initial movements after the strike were consistent with Bitcoin’s history during sudden geopolitical shocks.
at that time, crypto slate According to reports, BTC was sold over the weekend after the war broke out, with about $300 million liquidated as traders reduced their risk.
Here, Bitcoin quickly fell toward the mid-$63,000s, trading in line with widespread expectations for a high-beta asset amid severe uncertainty.
However, subsequent developments changed the shape of the story.
Instead of staying near its lows, Bitcoin rebounded and breached the $70,000 milestone in the second week of March as oil prices rose and inflation concerns returned to the market.
The recovery outperformed gold, silver and major U.S. stock indexes over the same period, even as oil prices remained elevated and traders reassessed the macro impact of the protracted Middle East conflict.
Part of that recovery appears to be coming from a market that had already cleared significant leverage during the initial washout.
Data from CoinGlass showed that after the flash, the leverage was rebuilt and Bitcoin price increased along with open interest. Open interest has returned to around 88,000 BTC, a level that, although not yet at its extreme, suggests new participation.
This setup leaves room for volatility in either direction. It also shows that after the initial liquidation event, traders quickly returned to the market and helped prices recover.
Added support with ETF flows
Another layer of support came from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund demand.
Inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs this week totaled $586.99 million, making it the third-highest inflow week of the year, according to SoSoValue data.
While these flows do not by themselves explain the full price movement, they do represent a steady source of demand flowing into the market during times of geopolitical tension and tight macro environment.
This combination of a liquidation reset followed by ETF inflows helps explain why Bitcoin recovered faster than most expected after the first round of war-related selling.
The context differs from previous geopolitical episodes in cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin is now traded in a deeper, more institutionalized market.
Spot ETFs have expanded their buyer base, and their broad pool of capital appears to be helping absorb volatility after the initial wave of risk aversion.
Bitcoin’s disputed trading patterns have also reinforced its role as a liquid macro asset. The market has been processing both crypto-native signals and global inter-asset signals simultaneously.
Price movements around oil, the dollar, and Fed expectations remained relevant during the rebound, but Bitcoin still recovered more strongly than some traditional benchmarks.
At the same time, there is evidence that stress benefits exist beneath the surface of markets.
After the initial strike, blockchain data showed a sharp increase in outflows from Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges.
Although these flows were too small to move the global Bitcoin market on their own, they served as another reminder of how digital assets can be used during times of capital stress and financial turmoil.
Bear market view remains stuck on the uptrend
Despite the recovery, multiple analysts continue to state that the market is bearish.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the company’s Bitcoin Bullscore index reached 30, its highest level since late October. He said the index had moved from “extremely bearish” to “bearish” and described the move as a salvage rally within a broader bear market.
Additional data from CryptoQuant also shows that market mistrust is growing even as Bitcoin remains above $70,000.
In its view, the macro environment remains challenging, especially as tensions over global oil trade remain unresolved. In this situation, traders continue to lean on the upside rather than chasing it.
Such skepticism is also reflected in the derivatives market. Funding rates on Binance have remained negative for about a week, indicating that many traders have used each rebound as an opportunity to add short exposure.
On March 10th and 11th, Binance’s funding rate fell below -0.006, a level that indicates that the market is heavily biased towards short selling.
These situations can go both ways. While persistent short positions reflect caution, they also create the potential for further upside if rising prices force bearish traders to cover.
Joanne Wesson, founder of blockchain analytics platform Alphactal, added another warning sign. He said the whale-to-retail delta shows that whales are reducing their long positions relative to retail traders.
When this indicator moves into the red zone, it indicates that whales are increasingly inclined to take short positions, while retail traders are leaning in the opposite direction.
In previous cases, Wesson said, these readings have either preceded a decline in prices or coincided with local depletion near the bottom.
Liquidity Zones Define Next Moves
For now, Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains rangebound, with whale supply overhead and strong bidding support below.
Bitunix analysts said: crypto slate The Derivatives Liquidations Heatmap shows the area around $71,300 as the first major short liquidation and liquidity concentration zone above the current price, which represents a near-term resistance level.
CoinGlass data further adds to the situation, showing that a large sell wall has built up between $72,000 and $74,000, creating a notable band of overhead supply.
Meanwhile, the support structure underlying the market is becoming clearer.
CoinGlass data shows whales piling up bids between $70,500 and $71,000, with deeper clusters between $69,000 and $70,000. Bitunix analysts have separately identified secondary liquidity support around $69,000, while a deeper long-term liquidation cluster is centered around $68,800.
Taken together, the order book and liquidation data indicate that Bitcoin is trading between whale supply on the upside and strong bid support on the downside.
If buyers absorb the sell wall above $72,000, the price could move into a denser short leverage zone between $72,000 and $73,500.
However, if this resistance holds, the market could reverse towards bid support near $70,500 to $71,000, with a deeper pullback potentially testing liquidity near $69,000.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
