Ethereum price is hovering around its daily pivot as traders reassess risks following the recent selloff, with the market attempting a cautious rebound.
$ETH/USDT — Daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50, and volume.
Daily Chart (D1) – Macro Bias: Bearish but not oversold
Daily regime: bearish. The price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs, and momentum is calming without causing any panic. This combination indicates a controlled downtrend or prolonged correction rather than a capitulation event.
Trends and structure (D1)
– price: $3,010.64
– EMA20: $3,049.91
– EMA50: $3,101.63
– EMA200: $3,258.23
Ethereum is being traded below all three major EMAs. The short-term trend (20 days), medium-term trend (50 days), and long-term trend (200 days) are all overhead, with bearish trends stacking up. In practice, this means that any pullback into the $3,050-$3,260 range is technically still a pullback into resistance and not yet the start of a new rally. The bull is not surfing, he is fighting the tape.
RSI (D1)
– RSI14: 46.81
The RSI is slightly below the midline and slopes gently down. Ethereum is In a pocket of mild bearish momentum, but far from oversold. There is room for further declines without depletion, leaving the door open for further declines if sellers reassert control.
MACD (D1)
– MACD line: -42.54
– Signal line: -20.88
– histogram: -21.66
The MACD becomes negative on the line below the signal and the histogram also becomes negative. In other words Check the momentum of the downside priceit’s not just a sideways pause. The trend of the indicator shows that the bears have the upper hand for several sessions, which coincides with the price being below all major EMAs.
Bollinger Bands (D1)
– Middle band: $3,102.16
– Upper band: $3,423.09
– Lower band: $2,781.24
The price is just below the middle band, approximately Lower half of the band range. This is not a complete trend breakdown as Ethereum is not capturing the lower bands. It is rather a lower controlled drift within a wide volatility range. Although the average could move back to $3,100-$3,150, the broader band structure remains advantageous. sales environment Unless prices can rise above the mid-band.
ATR and volatility (D1)
– ATR14: $121.40
The daily ATR is approximately $120, with a typical daily fluctuation of 3-4%. It’s high but not extreme $ETH. In fact, it can fluctuate from $3,010 to about $2,890 or up to about $3,130 in a typical session. Position sizing must respect that range. Noise will be collected if you suddenly stop nearby.
Daily pivot level (D1)
– Pivot point (PP): $3,009.01
– R1: $3,031.42
– S1: $2,988.22
The price is fixed at the pivot. For the time being, daytime battlegrounds range from $2,990 to $3,030. Continuing to trade below S1 would confirm that sellers are still in control of the daily tape, while building a base above R1 would be the first sign that buyers are slowly absorbing supply.
D1 points: The main scenario is bearish. Rather than being swept away, Ethereum is in a controlled downtrend, with a rally to the $3,050-$3,250 area still favorable for active traders to take profits and short positions.
1 Hourly Chart (H1) – Short-term buyers resist the resistance level
Hourly charts change the game. Here, Ethereum has made a gradual recovery from its lows and is attempting to regain key intraday levels, but its regime is printed as follows: neutralreflecting the tug of war between daily downtrends and intraday rebounds.
Trend and EMA (first half)
– price: $3,010.02
– EMA20: $2,991.34
– EMA50: $2,961.68
– EMA200: $2,995.68
On the hourly chart the price is being traded All three EMAs plus. The fast EMAs (20 and 50) have rounded and are now below the price and the 200 hour has been recovered as well. This is a typical short-term recovery structure. The market is pricing in a rebound, but it is still nested within a bearish day-to-day situation. The intraday trend is up, but the higher time frame trend is down. That’s the core time frame tension right now.
RSI (H1)
– RSI14: 58.52
The RSI is bullish, but not overbought. it is, healthy recovery Not with the force of bubbling. While buyers are in control during the day, there is plenty of room to overextend, supporting the idea that a concerted broader market could push prices further towards local resistance.
MACD (H1)
– MACD line: 18.27
– Signal line: 21.34
– histogram: -3.07
The MACD is slightly positive, but there is a line just below the signal. Mixed, slightly weakened read. The momentum was bullish, but it has calmed down and is now halted. This is consistent with price stalling around the hourly pivot and resistance levels. The bulls are in control of the short-term trend, but are losing momentum in a key decision zone.
Bollinger Bands (H1)
– Middle band: $2,995.11
– Upper band: $3,057.00
– Lower band: $2,933.21
Prices are trading inside the upper half of the envelope, just above the middle band. it matches the following Moderate non-parabolic advancement. There is room to head towards the upper band around $3,050-$3,060 before intraday conditions extend. This band region lines up neatly with the higher timeframe resistance of the daily EMA, making it a logical short-term ceiling.
ATR and volatility (first half)
– ATR14: $20.04
A typical hourly candlestick fluctuating around $20 means intraday noise of 0.6-0.7%. Ethereum can easily move between H1 support and resistance pivots within a few candlesticks. Short-term traders should expect mean-reverting behavior within this band unless a strong catalyst is triggered.
Pivot level by hour (H1)
– Pivot point (PP): $3,004.10
– R1: $3,021.62
– S1: $2,992.51
Price is hovering just above the hourly pivot. A sustain above $3,000 and establishment of acceptance above $3,022 will sustain the near-term bullish trend. A break below $2,993 would indicate that the pullback is fading and sellers are reasserting themselves in line with their daily bias.
15-minute chart (M15) – Execution zone: narrow range local uptrend
The 15-minute chart is where execution decisions are refined. Here, Ethereum is Bullish intraday systemhigher grinding, but within a relatively narrow range.
Trend and EMA (M15)
– price: $3,010.02
– EMA20: $3,002.45
– EMA50: $2,998.95
– EMA200: $2,959.09
In this short period of time, the price is well above the EMA20 and EMA50, and well above the EMA200. it is Clear local uptrend A moving average that accumulates and rises. The M15 chart itself supports higher continuations. But it is moving directly into the teeth of everyday resistance.
RSI(M15)
– RSI14: 56.94
The RSI is comfortably in bullish territory without overheating. this is typical controlled grinding A breakout attempt can still find follow-through unless the higher timeframe rejects the price sharply.
MACD (M15)
– MACD line: -1.08
– Signal line: -1.53
– histogram: 0.45
The M15 MACD is just crossing upwards from slightly negative territory. Perfect for photos of fresh micro bounce After a small integration. Although momentum is growing, the movement is still in its early stages and fragile.
Bollinger Bands (M15)
– Middle band: $3,002.84
– Upper band: $3,017.23
– Lower band: $2,988.44
The price is near the top of the band and the band is relatively tight. it is, Short-term breakout attempt From the low volatility range. The local rally could extend if the price can ride the upper band towards $3,015-$3,020 without a sudden rejection. A quick snapback inside the center of the band will flag a failed breakout.
ATR and volatility (M15)
– ATR14: $8.75
On a 15-minute candlestick, a typical price movement around $8 to $9 would imply a microswing of about 0.3%. it is relatively tough $ETH And this is Compressed and choppy execution environment During the day. Small stops or scalps can work here, but as liquidity thins, you become vulnerable to sudden spikes.
15 minute pivot level (M15)
– Pivot point (PP): $3,011.37
– R1: $3,014.35
– S1: $3,007.03
The price is just below the M15 pivot. Short-term scalpers will keep a close eye on the $3,007-$3,014 band. If it stays on top, it will act as a stepping stone into the H1 R1 area. Losing that could cause Ethereum to fall toward an hourly S1, possibly below $3,000.
Market conditions: Risks remain cautious; $ETH under pressure
Off the charts, the broader crypto market cap is rising approx. 1.9% Within 24 hours, $BTC Control rate is high at approximately 57% fear and greed index 29 (fear). This combination indicates that flows are conservative and prefer Bitcoin and stablecoins over high-beta alternative exposures.
Ethereum’s share of market capitalization, approx. 11.7%still represents a core asset, but not an environment the market is keen to chase $ETH Actively increase it. DeFi fee activity uniswap, curveand other protocols have rebounded strongly in the 30-day period, but the 7-day view is mixed, which is consistent with this corrective tone: on-chain activity is recovering from the lows, but traders are far from euphoric.
Bullish scenario for Ethereum price
The bull case is counter trend rally That gradually builds up to a base of over $3,000.
On the bullish route, $ETH It is above the daily pivot of $3,009 and the hourly S1 of around $2,993, and is using the decline towards $3,000 as a liquidity gain rather than a breakdown. During the day, the uptrend of M15 and H1 is sustained, with prices forming lows above the EMA20 on both time frames.
First step for bulls: clean push and sustained upside $3,030 – $3,050H1 R1 and daily EMA20 are clustered. Once that area is reclaimed and begins to act as support, the market can target that area. $3,100 – $3,150 Bands (Daily Mid Bollinger Bands and EMA50). That zone is the real battlefield. A solid success above the 50 EMA would be the first reliable sign that the broader correction is over and the trend is returning to a neutral or bullish direction at D1.
In a more optimistic extension, Daily Bollinger cap is around $3,400 Overall cryptocurrency sentiment improves, $BTC We will continue to improve even higher. However, this will likely require a shift not only in local technical aspects but also in macro risk appetite.
What invalidates the bullish scenario?
the end of a decisive day Less than $2,950 to $2,960 This can cause serious damage to the bull’s case. This means that the current support shelf could be lost, the RSI could fall further below 50, and the MACD downside could widen. Technically, that would confirm that the rally attempt was just dispersed to the inside of the larger down leg.
Bearish scenario for Ethereum price
The bearish case is more in line with the current day-to-day situation. The repulsion disappears; $ETH It resumes drifting lower within a wider volatility band.
On a bearish path, Ethereum cannot sustain the above trade $3,030 – $3,050. Any attempt to break out of this zone will be rejected and the lower time frame will roll over. M15 loses EMA20 and EMA50 and starts recording lower highs, while H1 MACD falls decisively and RSI retreats towards 40.
Return to bottom $3,000Especially if it is accompanied by an increase in volume and an expansion in the hourly ATR, this could be a signal that the seller is once again in charge. From there, the bear $2,950 – $2,900 First, in this region, if unrest increases and the overall market weakens, there will be a deeper test of the lower bound of the daily Bollinger Bands. $2,800 – $2,820 The zone becomes realistic.
Given that D1’s RSI is not oversold, the bears have room to push the price lower without hitting the lower bound of strong momentum. This favors a contraction scenario rather than a sudden reversal, especially in the following cases: $BTC Dominance remains high and alternative sentiment remains weak.
What would invalidate the bearish scenario?
Clear daily closing prices back up Daily EMA50 (approximately $3,100)followed by a follow-through towards EMA200. $3,260which will put a lot of stress on the bearish narrative. If this movement occurs while the daily RSI recovers and remains above 55 and the MACD levels off towards zero, the downtrend argument loses credibility. At that point, traders are considering moving into a broader range or into a new uptrend.
How to think about positioning now
From a trading perspective, Ethereum is caught between: Short-term bullish momentum and medium-term bearish structure. In this type of time frame conflict, traders often ignore the big picture and chase intraday signals and overtrade.
For directional exposures, the key is to respect daily bias. $ETH A rebound is more likely if we retrace at least the 20-day and 50-day EMAs with confidence. Opportunities for mean reversion within a downtrend Not the start of a sustained bullish leg. Long intraday still makes sense, but you’re playing on a higher timeframe and should be treated as tactical rather than strategic.
While not extreme, the volatility is still high and can easily swing 3-4% on a normal day. To avoid being pushed out by everyday noise, you should scale your leverage and position size accordingly. Uncertainty remains high and market sentiment is subject to widespread fear and anxiety. $BTC Scenario planning is more important than forecasting because it governs the flow.
This means that Ethereum price is attempting to rebound within a correction structure. As long as daily closes between $3,050 and $3,150 limit upside, the burden of proof is on the bulls.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable. Always do your own research and evaluate your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
