There is a brand problem in the crypto winter.
When you hear this phrase, it will sound like the chain becomes quiet, the wallet stops moving, and the entire machine cools down. But the clearest evidence of retail exit is rarely on-chain.
The first to disappear will not be power users connecting their stables to DeFi or long-term holders shuffling their coins between addresses in cold storage. They are casual participants who show up when the risk feels fun, open their broker app, tap on a market purchase, and then disappear without leaving any decent footprint on the chain.
That’s why the most useful retail barometer is located in an often-overlooked place: Robinhood and Coinbase’s earnings line.
When retail activity tapers off, brokers experience fewer trades, lower notional amounts, and lower trading revenues. When retail activity increases, it manifests itself in increased engagement and take.
Currently, prices are driven by a small number of buyers using ETFs, futures, and other structured products, allowing Bitcoin charts to appear alive despite declining participation.
A participation recession can coexist with a price rebound. You only have to look at what these two companies have reported to see how they actually split.
Robinhood’s fourth quarter made that point clear with indisputable numbers. Total net revenue was $1.28 billion, an increase of 27% year over year, and transaction-based revenue was $776 million, an increase of 15%.
However, the composition of that revenue is important.
Option income increased 41% to $314 million, and equity income increased 54% to $94 million. Meanwhile, crypto revenue fell by 38% year-on-year to $221 million.
That’s what retail rotation looks like.
Coinbase, which many still treat as an agent for retail crypto demand, reported the same coldness from a different angle.
In the fourth quarter 2025 shareholder letter, total revenue was $1.781 billion, with trading revenue of $982.7 million and subscription and services revenue of $727.4 million. Consumer transaction revenue for the quarter was $733.9 million, down from $843.5 million in the third quarter. Institutional trading revenue increased from $135 million to $185 million. The company also reported a net loss of $667 million in the quarter.
When you put these together, you see the same problem as Robinhood. As retail activity cooled, the business focused more on non-trading segments, with more revenue coming from the service stack than trading in the quarter.
The retail barometer lies in the broker’s income statement
On-chain metrics can tell you if whales are distributing, if long-term holders are spending, if the stablecoin supply is expanding, and if the base layer is busy.
However, it can also be misleading about retail participation, as the retail cycle means more than just the movement of coins, it also means people actively trading.
Much of today’s flow is inside the wrapper, which the chain never sees. If someone buys exposure through a broker, hedges with listed options, or trades within an internal venue, the chain can appear calm, even though the user experience is busy.
Because Robinhood is built around its user experience, its quarterly reports can be viewed like behavioral research with profit and loss attached. The company ended the quarter with 27 million customers funded and an ARPU of $191.
These may not be crypto-native metrics, but they are exactly what you need when trying to answer a simple question: Are people still participating?
In the case of Robinhood, the answer to participation is yes.
But the answer to risk is more specific. The retail industry is leaning towards methods that provide clear results and quick feedback, with option and event contracts being the most popular.
This becomes clearer when you look at operational data.
Option contract trading volume reached 659 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 38% year over year. Cryptocurrency notional trading volume was $82 billion, of which $48 billion was related to Bitstamp and $34 billion was related to the Robinhood app, representing a 52% year-over-year decline in notional value. Event contract transaction value reached 8.5 billion in the fourth quarter.
Robinhood is calling 2025 a record year, but it could signal the arrival of crypto winter in the very places that will really hurt retail brokers: crypto revenue lines and app crypto concepts.
Transaction-based revenue was driven by stocks and options, but crypto lagged at $221 million, below expectations that had been concentrated at higher levels. This helped explain why the quarter disappointed expectations despite record net revenue.
This is important because it frames crypto’s winter weakness as a participation issue rather than a product failure. The platform maintained its audience, but the audience reduced crypto trading.
Coinbase is different because it is closer to the core venue economy. Retail and institutional flows share the same brand even though they behave differently.
The letter to shareholders detailed the change in composition without requiring special interpretation, with fourth-quarter trading revenue of $983 million, down 6% sequentially.
Coinbase attributes the consumer decline to a decrease in consumer spot volume and a mix shift. Institutional transaction revenue increased sequentially, even though institutional spot trading volume decreased.
A quarter like that would mean institutional flows would be relatively important, while retail would be in retreat.
This also means that they will survive and not disappear with the next deal frenzy as their business model moves towards recurring revenue. This type of winter protection is easiest to find in the Subscriptions and Services section.
Coinbase reported $727.4 million in subscription and services revenue in the fourth quarter, with $364.1 million in stablecoin revenue alone. Stablecoin gains helped cushion the blow from lower trading volumes.
This is definitely the most misunderstood part of this cycle. This is because the market believes that winter in cryptocurrencies is the same as inactivity.
But in reality, a crypto winter often means that crypto businesses move toward revenue streams that continue to function even as rail, custody, and retail exit.
Prices may recover even while there are fewer participants
If we separate the price of Bitcoin and the wide range of participants surrounding it, it becomes easier to understand the virtual currency winter. Prices are supported by a small number of buyers using regulated wrappers, hedging instruments, and institutional balance sheets.
That way, you can keep the charts alive even as the culture of participation feels like it’s fading. You know it when large numbers concentrate in a few pipes and the spillover to everything else fades.
Coinbase’s own operating notes suggest its focus. In the fourth quarter, consumer spot trading volume was $56 billion and institutional spot trading volume was $215 billion.
You don’t need to romanticize institutional adoption to understand what it means. In such quarters, the market can function with fewer participants, but its behavior is different. It can rise based on reallocation, hedging flows, and macro positioning without people manifesting a broader set of behaviors associated with full-blown mania.
Robinhood Quarterly offers its retail version.
People are still trading, but cryptocurrencies are no longer the default outlet for that energy. Options revenue grew 41% year-over-year, and event contracts became the company’s core product line of focus.
The desire for action has been redirected to measures that feel more controllable, more game-like, or more readable in a market where sentiment has deteriorated.
This redirect also explains why staring at activity on chain is confusing.
On-chain appears stable as the remaining users actually use the rails.
On the other hand, peripheral participants who drive the emotional volume of the cycle may disappear without leaving a neat signature. This is because its participants’ entire relationship with cryptocurrencies was mediated through the interface of apps, wrappers, and brokers.
Coinbase linked the quarter’s weakness to the broader cryptocurrency decline, noting that trading volumes could collapse quickly if risk sentiment breaks down.
Robinhood made a similar point from the other side, showing that stocks and options can keep the retail engine running even when crypto slumps.
So where has retail risk gone?
Robinhood’s numbers give us three answers.
It first entered exchange-traded options trading, with 659 million contracts traded in the fourth quarter. Second, we entered into event contracts, with $8.5 billion traded in the quarter. Third, some of that has simply ceased to be expressed through the cryptocurrency concept on the Robinhood app, which the company says is down 52% year over year.
Coinbase’s answer is that retail has cooled, institutional flows have held up better, and the company has relied more on stablecoin-driven revenue and other subscription and service lines, making the business less reliant on retail churn.
All of this suggests that the industry will rebalance around areas that can continue to be profitable even as retailers exit.
However, the market may recover before people recover, and prices may stabilize while participants remain selective.
As the crypto winter ends, the first thing we’ll see the audience return to is the revenue line, which records whether people are clicking, trading, and paying spreads again.
