QCP Capital analysts waned US market optimism in a March 19 report, noting that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty raised investors’ attention a month after the S&P 500 hit a record high.
QCP Capital highlights its defense strategy when music stops
Major hedge funds, including the Millennium and Brevan Howard, faced sudden losses, with QCP citing $900 million losses from two millennium teams and a 5% annual decline in Brevan Howard’s master fund.
The Singapore-based company believes it has warned of a “creeping cost spiral” in the US economy ahead of the April 2nd tariff deadline, due to trade tensions, particularly escalating mutual tariffs involving the US, Canada, China and the EU.
QCP further identified the looming tariff decision as the “closest headwind” of risk assets, but the Middle East conflict failed to significantly raise oil prices due to potential increased US supply and concerns about global demand related to the trade war.
QCP analysts now view gold as a more reliable risk barometer than oil. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to be stable today, but QCP is projecting a long-term “on-waiting” stance due to delayed tariff impacts, with analysts closely monitoring the immense changes in the policy language.
According to QCP’s market update, interim support for Bitcoin at $80,000 appears vulnerable amid wider macroeconomic weaknesses.
Meanwhile, BTC prices rose upwards on Wednesday following an announcement that the SEC is withdrawing the Ripple lawsuit. BTC/USD chart via BitStamp in the East, March 19, 2025 at 10:07am.
Researchers warned that the short-term catalysts to reverse market defeats remain elusive and would encourage investors to prioritize key protected yield strategies to hedge long-term volatility. “We don’t try to summon the exact moment when the music stops, but in the short term we have a hard time identifying a meaningful tailwind to reverse this defeat.”
