Users looking to explore Polymarket’s airdrop potential are stepping up their game to make it harder for prediction markets to weed them out. Follows recently decryption report it Polymarket plans to release crypto tokens Once it regains a foothold in the U.S., it will probably be in 2026.
last yearas many users expected the token launch to take place after the US election, farmers bought and sold large amounts of positions to artificially inflate them. They did this in an effort to position themselves for a larger allocation of future token airdrops, which are often designed to reward the most active and engaged users of a crypto protocol.
This method was very easy to spot and clogged the activity feed, which was annoying for regular users. phantom bet He said he would report personally.
Currently, both Phantom Bets and prominent Polymarket users CSP trading said decryption They think farmers’ efforts may have become “more sophisticated” because previous patterns have largely disappeared.
“Before, it was very obvious. They were doing a huge $50,000 block buy on themselves. It was clearly an unsophisticated wash trade,” CSPTrading said. decryption. “I don’t see much of that in the sports market that I market for. That’s the only reason I think the sports market has become ‘more sophisticated’ or given up.”
Phantom Betts agreed that while airdrop farming at Polymarket doesn’t seem to be as rampant as it was last year, people are still airdrop farming. He said wash traders were previously easily detected because they often bought and sold stocks in the market between two accounts.
He speculates that washtraders are currently doing so using more than 100 wallets to prevent this from becoming an outlier statistic. Phantom Bets is currently working on a project to identify these wash traders.
pseudonymous trader known as shade said decryption They are growing airdrops, but their method for doing so does not require wash trading. Instead, they identified four criteria that would be considered in the airdrop: volume, profit, liquidity provision, and number of markets for users to trade.
“I think it’s likely that (the airdrop) will happen in stages or something like this.” logarithmic curveBecause the rewards for large amounts of volume and liquidity are being done by a small percentage of users,” Shady said. decryption. “While some users and bots trade eight-figure volumes per month, the average user probably doesn’t even trade six-figure volumes. If you compensated people linearly based on trading volume, you would create a distribution that is highly skewed toward the top.”
As a result, Shady simply utilized prediction markets in a way that optimized its exposure to these potential criteria.
CSP Trading spoke decryption If such a user gets paid through airdrops, he is fine with it. Phantom Betts jokingly said he hates seeing people make money other than himself and his friends.
Predictor is on countless The Polymarket token is currently thought to have a less than 15% chance of being announced this year, down from 16.4% a week ago. What the people involved said decryption Even if announced this year, the token will likely not be launched until next year as the platform aims to re-enter the US market. is actually prohibited In 2022.
(Disclosure: Myriad decryption’s parent company, DASTAN. )
