More than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply remained static in 12 months. This is a structural feature that shapes how the market absorbs demand at the end of the year.
Per Bitbo, about 61% of coins have been dormant for more than a year, with about 17% having the deepest cohort for more than 10 years.
The latest HODL Waves Split is shown in 7-10 years, 5-7 years, 3-5 years, 13%, 2-3 years, 7-3 years, 7-3 years, 11.5%, 13%, 7-6 months, 7.5%, 9.5%, 1-3 months, 5% and 1 month.
These bands measure supply due to last strand movement rather than changes in total supply and are sensitive to binning and swapping tagging choices between providers.
The realization that the weight band is based on cost rather than coin count, HODL Waves can reveal the owner’s economic weight. This is a valuable lens for spotting whether the rally is thin, relying on short-term float, or broader balance sheet beliefs.
The supply profile intersects with a demand backdrop shaped by regulated funding and macro policies. For the week ending October 4, the Crypto Exchange-Traded product had net inflows of approximately $5.95 billion, led by the U.S. Spot product.
At a price of about $125,000 per Bitcoin, a week of $5.95 billion would mean an absorption of about 47,600 BTC. This corresponds to approximately 0.24% of the circulating supply if such a pace were sustained for a week.
This framing does not assume constant inflow. It sets a baseline for the size and behavior of shorter age cohorts.
Short-term supply remains meaningful.
Based on the latest readings, the combination of 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 6-12 months accounts for about 30-35% of the supply. This is the band mix that is most sensitive to price and most sensitive to macro shifts.
These cohorts tend to realize gains to strength whereas the 2+ age group typically rotates slowly. One of the cross-checks as to whether the elderly are being revived or not, Coin Day will be destroyed.
For each Bitbo, by tracking the 90-day moving average of CDD along with the price, we can identify revival spikes from the long coin compared to the quiet accumulation period that the coin era continues to build.
A decline to a low price to a stable CDD trend implies modest distribution from long-term holders, but a sharp CDD rise along with volatility marks an aging coin that often crashes into the market.
Macro policies can influence the mix of flows and disposal of mid-age holders by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve cut 25 basis points in September, and its summary of economic forecasts pointed to further easing in 2025.
A median pass means a lower policy rate next year.
On the inflation front, U.S. consumer prices rose 2.9% year over year in August.
Disinfection trends remain uneven but have eased from previous peaks. The path of moderate inflation and gradual policy easing can compress real yields at the margin. This is a mix that has historically supported risk appetite, including flows into Bitcoin-linked products, but the causal chain is probabilistic rather than deterministic.
The supply-demand math can be put together in a simple scenario that maps fund flows against the float available from Shorteage Bands. Using the same price anchor for comparability, a $1 billion net inflow of $125,000 per BTC would absorb approximately 8,000 BTC.
A range of $0.5-2 billion per week means 4,000-16,000 BTC per week. This can be compared to a plausible monthly rotation rate from a 1-12 month cohort.
If you have 30% of the supply in these bands, a monthly rotation of 5% would release about 0.05 x 0.30 x 19.7 million, or about 295,500 BTC per month, averaging 73,900 BTC per week.
That number dwarfs the pace of inflows, which range from $0.5 to $2 billion, but the turnover is rarely even and is often centered around price events and derivative positioning.
If the rotation drops to 1% per month, the weekly releases will be close to 14,800 BTC. This is a size that can be completely offset by a week of inflows of $2 billion.
The purpose of modeling is not to revise forecasts, but to define thresholds at which demand is absorbed or absorbed by the short-term supply stack.
| it was a band | about share |
|---|---|
| > 10 years | ~17% |
| 7-10 years | ~8% |
| 5-7 years | ~5% |
| 3-5 years | ~13% |
| 2-3 years | ~7% |
| 1-2 years | ~11.5% |
| 6-12 months | ~13% |
| 3-6 months | ~7.5% |
| 1-3 months | ~9.5% |
| <1 month | ~5% |
Another lens is the realized cap HODL wave, which tracks the share of realized value held by an age band. An increase in the share of the old band by realized value means an increase in the economic footprint for long-term holders.
Until the end of the year, if CDDs are locked up and the realized cap HODL wave ages, rallies are likely to rely on fresh capital rather than the thin side provided by holders with higher cost base discipline.
Conversely, if CDD climbs while ETP flows slowly, the mid-age band widens as the revived coin resets age.
| scenario | Assuming net ETP flows weekly | Implicit BTC is absorbed and weekly | Rotation of short eras, monthly | Implied BTC released, weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| low demand | 50 million dollars | ~4,000 | 5% | ~73,900 |
| base | 1.5 billion dollars | ~12,000 | 2% | ~29,600 |
| high demand | 4 billion dollars | ~32,000 | 1% | ~14,800 |
In this context, exchange balance remains a monitored metric.
Balances held on centralized exchanges are near multi-year lows, according to multiple public dashboards, but caution is advised with this metric. Wallet practices, off-exchange payments, and internalization can reduce on-exchange counts without changing marketable float.
Exchange tagging is imperfect and must be combined with other signals, such as order book depth, futures standards, and age flow in the chain, before closing out a supply shock.
Price context frames these flows and bands, but does not change the accounting.
Bitcoin is participating in price discovery this week, coinciding with a strong funds flow week. Whether such inflows are sustained depends on risk appetite and policy expectations.
If inflation readings approach the recent 2.9% annual pace and policy guidance trend toward gradual easing, there is scope for continued allocation from vehicles that did not previously hold Bitcoin.
When inflation becomes extreme again or policy guidance becomes restrictive, shorter age bands can offer more inventory as traders derisk.
The task for the next few weeks will be to track the three elements in tandem.
First, weekly ETP net flows are absorbing compared to 8,000 BTC per billion, and coin shares aggregate as a baseline.
Second, the 90-day trend and revival in CDD works against the price.
Third, the slope of HODL, both on a coin count and realized value basis.
Together, these series explain whether the market is being pulled in from a deep patient base or from close stocks that reverse faster. This will determine how demand beyond that will interact with a supply stack that has aged significantly through October.
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