“The OG Bitcoin whale is selling off” is the overall narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s recent sell-off. However, amid persistent talk that Bitcoin’s early supporters are behind the recent price decline, on-chain analyst Willy Wu pointed out “nuances” in the indicator. On-chain movements alone don’t tell the whole story. Old-school conservatives may not have given in yet.
Are OG Bitcoin Whales turning into cash? story
Charles Edwards of Capriol Investments published a chart depicting 2025 as a “very colorful” year for whale activity, revealing $100 million and $500 million in Bitcoin spending was traced to addresses that had been left unattended for more than seven years. He concluded:
“And the Bitcoin whales are selling off.”
More than 1 million BTC has moved since June, dramatically higher than previous cycles, leading analysts to the simple conclusion that whales are cashing in. Alex Krueger highlighted how this pattern marks a departure from past market cycles. Whale selling has been stable for almost 12 months, contributing to Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to other risk assets. He said:
“Graph shows OG Bitcoin whales have been dumping non-stop since November 2024.”
Horizon’s Joe Consorti agreed, posting:
“The OG Bitcoin whale is on fire and sentiment is terrible.”
He noted that Bitcoin’s early proponents are giving way to TradFi giants like JPMorgan, and how “the market has changed with 99.5% of Spot Bitcoin ETF funds failing to sell at this 20% drawdown.”
ETF investors: “Baby boomers” remained undaunted
And while insiders appear to be running away like rats from a sinking ship, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas points out that “boom” Bitcoin ETF buyers are holding strong. Despite the 20% drop in spot Bitcoin, outflows to Bitcoin ETFs remained less than $1 billion. he asked:
“So, who’s selling it? In the words of that horror movie, ‘Ma’am, I’ve got a call from inside the house.’
The “nuance” behind the OG Bitcoin whale movement
However, with an expected avalanche of OG sales, widely respected on-chain analyst Willy Wu warns against interpreting any movement in ancient coins as dumping. His analysis points to three important things that are often mistaken for sales, but which may have nothing to do with price-driven liquidations.
- Address Upgrades: Many OG holders are moving coins from legacy addresses to Taproot addresses for quantum security (rather than liquidation with cash).
- Custodial Rotation: Coins may be transferred to institutional custody (e.g., Signum Bank) for added protection against physical theft or wrench attacks, or may be pledged as collateral for borrowing without the need for sale.
- Treasury Participation: Some “OG” coins have been moved into equity wrappers or treasury companies, allowing holders to leverage, borrow, or optimize their holdings without triggering a taxable sale.
Wu points out that on-chain data only shows the “movement” of coins, not the real-world intent behind the transactions. So while the headline chart shows a “fire sell” for the OG Bitcoin whale, the resilience of the price under this massive move highlights a deeper reason than just market absorption and whale redemption.
Data from Capriol, Bloomberg, and Top Trader all confirm that OG activity is strong, but ETF outflows have remained minimal, absorbing more than 1 million BTC in sales with far less carnage than in past cycles, despite the price being under pressure. Not all ancient coin movements are dumping, so pay attention to on-chain nuances rather than rumors. What you see may not be what you get.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
