On-chain dollars hit 2.3% of global payments: Why Bitcoiners should be careful

According to a new A16Z cryptocurrency report, stablecoins have been used to move around $46 trillion in the past 12 months. Additionally, over $80 trillion in cryptocurrency transaction volume was processed during the same period.

In aggregations of stablecoins assembled based on payment “flows,” on-chain dollars sit within the low-single-digit share of global payments and are beginning to line up on mainstream rails in terms of scale for specific use cases such as cross-border remittances and 24/7 financial movement.

Reference points are important. Considering the global payment volume of approximately $2,000 trillion in 2024, stablecoins will account for approximately $200 billion. 2.3% of global payment flows On a flow-to-flow basis.

This comparison keeps the denominator consistent and avoids the common apples-and-oranges pitfall of flow series stacking against money stocks.

For readers who still want a provocation, if you divide the $46 trillion in flows by the US M2 money stock of approximately $22.195 trillion, measured in August 2025, the raw ratios are about the same. 207%However, this series measures different things and should not be interpreted as a “share of the dollar.”

According to FRED and McKinsey, the correct view is that stablecoins have entered the payments conversation from a flow perspective.

For the U.S. benchmark, the stablecoin remains smaller than Wholesale Telecom and about half that of Automated Clearinghouse Systems on an annualized basis.

The Federal Reserve’s Fedwire Funds Services will move approximately $1.133 trillion in 2024, and Natcha’s ACH value, annualized from Q3 2025 volume, is nearly $93 trillion.

These anchors indicate where on-chain dollars fit today and where tilt could become an issue if policy and distribution continue to open the door.

The cross-equity lens helps measure the footprint of tokenized dollars in the monetary base conversation.

Average stablecoin volatility over the past year has been in the range of $250 billion to $300 billion, with tokenized slices representing just over 1% of the M2 money stock.

This framework aligns with the idea that stablecoins act like instant settlement wrappers for money market-style reserves rather than deposits, which have implications for the plumbing of Treasury markets as the composition of reserves is skewed towards short-term bills. The moving parts are the float and its rotating part.

Velocity indicates how hard each dollar on-chain spins.

If you divide the trailing 12-month total of $46 trillion in remittances by the average float of $250 billion to $300 billion, the implied annualized revenue is nearly 150 to 185 times. This number is a color indicator rather than an indicator of welfare, as internal hops, exchange wallets, and automated flows can inflate the count.

Tailored transfer methodologies, such as netting a16z-style internal transfers, can narrow the gap between raw and economic volumes.

According to a16z crypto, combining raw and adjusted series is a cleaner way to track adoption across retail remittances, B2B corridors, and exchange payments.

Policies are beginning to define how and where these flows touch regulated boundaries. The US GENIUS Act, signed into law in July, establishes a federal framework for reserves, licenses and issuer disclosures that banks and payment processors can undertake.

The law directs agencies on rulemaking timelines and sets standards for supervised issuance, storage, and certification. Publishers’ behavior is already shifting towards compliance-first.

The composition of reserves brings the government bond market into view. In total, stablecoin issuers hold well over $150 billion in US Treasury bills, making the sector one of the large marginal buyers on the front end.

As stablecoin float expands through new distribution channels, additional demand for Treasury bills becomes a mechanical function of growth and reserve policy rather than discretionary trading. This connection is starting to matter to interest rate desks and public sector watchers tracking bill supply.

Variance is the second factor after throughput numbers.

Card networks, processors, and enterprise wallets are starting to incorporate on-chain payments into their checkout flows, supplier payments, and remittance rails, and while stablecoins are often limited to the interbank leg, the user interface remains familiar.

Multi-dollar stablecoins are now being enabled network-wide in select pilots and programs, expanding acceptance channels without changing consumer behavior.

This template, combined with a low-fee base layer and fast block times, yields headline throughput beyond pure speculative churn.

Modeling stablecoin payment flows

Future scenarios through 2027 center around three variables: pace of policy, depth of allocation, and reserve carry.

The basic path for normalized U.S. oversight and increased fintech consolidation envisions a stablecoin float of around $450 billion to $650 billion and subsequent 12-month remittances of nearly $70 trillion to $90 trillion, which would imply a 3% to 4.5% share of global payments value if the McKinsey denominator grows at a historic pace.

Higher uptake channels, including payroll, merchant payments, and issuance by supervised U.S. banks, will result in free float approaching $800 billion to $1.2 trillion, annual remittances of $110 trillion to $150 trillion, global share of 5% to 7%, and holdings of Treasury bills of $300 billion to $500 billion if reserve requirements remain high.

A slower path, reflecting stricter filtering of non-economic transfers and delayed implementation rules, would keep free float in the $350 billion to $450 billion range, throughput closer to $50 trillion to $60 trillion, and global share closer to 2.5% to 3%.

These ranges are directional and should be evaluated with transfer series adjusted for bounce noise due to wallet internal movements.

Flow indicators include internal hops and automated strategies that do not necessarily correspond to economic activity, and while stablecoin aggregation has been and continues to be delayed, global payments are pegged at 2024, with varying timebases between sources.

By labeling flows and stocks, and combining raw and adjusted series, we can avoid overestimating adoption while reflecting the scale of payments currently being cleared on public chains.

According to a16z crypto, a combination of moderated volume and wallet cohorting is a more appropriate measure for new use cases.

Regulatory alignment is now reflected in issuers’ roadmaps. Tether outlines US-regulated USA₮ products issued under the new framework, with Anchorage Digital acting as the issuing entity.

What does this mean for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?

For the market, the fact that $46 trillion, or about 2.3% of global payments, is going through dollar tokens means that the dollar leg of cryptocurrencies is getting deeper and faster, which is bullish for BTC/ETH liquidity.

In the case of Bitcoin, thicker pools of stablecoins in exchange and market maker inventories tend to reduce fiat friction and tighten spreads, thus increasing spot/purp trading volume and improving price discovery in the risk-on window.

In the case of Ethereum, stablecoins are the primary users of block space (and increasingly on L2). In general, increased payment throughput means increased fee income, increased burn propensity based on EIP-1559, and a clear demarcation line from payment activity to ETH cash flow and supply dynamics.

If policy continues to expand distribution (banks, processors, corporate wallets), stablecoin float and sales could become a leading indicator of upcoming BTC demand, providing a structural tailwind for the ETH network economy, while also dampening some volatility as on-chain dollars provide 24/7 liquidity during macroshocks.