For trader and communicator David Battaglia, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at an unprecedented stage in its history. According to his market view, digital currencies have entered what he defines as a “second long cycle.”
Unlike the four-year cycles that typically pace Bitcoin, long-term cycles represent paradigm shifts that can span decades. Battaglia suggests that the market structure may have mutated because a significant portion of the initial investors who acquired the coin during the first few years of the asset’s life have already liquidated their positions.
“This is the real Bitcoin cycle you need to understand,” the trader says when explaining the current situation. According to his analysis, this capital turnover means the coins have been moving “from original holders to new buyers over the past two years.”
This technological and fundamental change redefines price forecasting and places the asset at a stage of maturity as a global reserve.
According to Battaglia’s interpretation, Bitcoin’s trajectory can be divided into two major eras. “$0 to $100,000 constitutes the first long bullish cycle for Bitcoin,” the trader explained. For him, the price reached on December 5, 2024, $100,000 (as shown in the graph) represents fundamental psychological and technical barriers that have already begun to be addressed by the market.
the result, Analysts predict massive growth trajectory in its infancy. “Bitcoin’s second long cycle now begins,” he said. According to their analysis, this new period “starts at $60,000 and ends at $1 million,” with the latter price being the trend’s ultimate target.
Factors of structural change
The consolidation of this thesis is supported by the massive capital inflows that resulted in the approval of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in January 2024, allowing large amounts of managed capital to flow into the asset in a regulated manner.
Adding to this trend are examples from companies such as Strategy, led by Michael Saylor. The company’s aggressive accumulation strategy has established it as the company with the largest Bitcoin reserves in its treasury at 766,970 BTC.
According to Battaglia, these factors “absorbed millions of coins and changed the structure of the market.” Prices varied between $40,000 and $126,000 (all-time highs).
For traders, the $60,000 level is decisive because it “signifies the definitive capitulation of retail investors who are simply trying to take advantage of the cycle.” The term refers to small retail investors who act on emotion and tend to abandon the market due to volatility, leaving supply in the hands of entities with higher holding capacity.
Bitcoin adoption and geopolitics
Battaglia identifies two additional keys to this new long-term cycle. The first is the entry of major banks into the Bitcoin ETF sector.
On April 8, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), a fund from Morgan Stanley, debuted, as reported by CriptoNoticias. Commenting on the launch, Eric Balchunas, a specialist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: The most important thing since Bitcoin ETFs began operating in the US.
The second key is geopolitical in nature and is tied to Iran. Following a two-week cease-fire agreed with the US following clashes that began on February 28, the Persian state began collecting BTC. Transit fees for oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
“All this marks a new beginning for Bitcoin as a global and versatile asset in any situation, whether in times of peace or war,” Battaglia noted.
There is skepticism in the market about the price of Bitcoin
Despite widespread optimism, opposition to this bullish vision is emerging. Market analyst Willy Wu introduced skepticism based on on-chain models. Wu points out that these traditional models suggest the market bottom could be much lower than Battaglia’s estimate.
Specialists identify the true technical support, the price level at which the decline in demand is expected to be halted. Area “between $46,000 and $54,000”. Wu warns that the bear market could become more severe if macroeconomic conditions worsen. His main concern is that traditional stock markets will eventually collapse, an event he says would “irreversibly depreciate digital assets.”
While Mr. Battaglia maintains structural enthusiasm for state adoption and multimillion-dollar valuations from large investors, analysts like Mr. Wu are urging caution.
