Massive ETF outflow weighs on ETH price trend

Ethereum price traded around $3,870 today, registering a modest 1.7% rebound after volatile trading where ETF outflows weighed on prices. Despite the rise in futures open interest, the overall market tone remains cautious as selling by institutional investors such as BlackRock has dampened upside momentum.

Massive outflows of ETFs weigh on Ethereum price trends

Ethereum price movement continues to struggle below the $4,000 resistance zone, constrained by a spate of ETF redemptions. Data shared by market analyst Ted Pillows shows that net outflows from the Spot ETH ETF on October 30 were $184 million, led by $118 million in sales from BlackRock.

The move reflects renewed institutional vigilance following recent macroeconomic weakness and uncertainty in staking yields. Total ETF outflows totaled over $400 million this week, weakening Ethereum’s near-term demand structure despite stable on-chain metrics.

Spot outflows suggest traders are taking profits

ETH Netflows (Source: Coinglass)

CoinGlass data confirms that spot net outflows have worsened, totaling $386 million this week, with limited inflows to compensate. The consistent red bar indicates continued selling by large holders as the price fluctuates around the uptrend line near $3,600.

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The move is indicative of a defensive posture among traders, many of whom appear to be rotating into stablecoins and short-term financial instruments ahead of the November macro data cycle. Nevertheless, short-term net flows turned slightly positive at $42 million, suggesting that some accumulation is quietly returning to lower levels.

Futures data shows leverage remains in effect

In the derivatives market, Ethereum open interest increased by 0.47% on the day to $47.2 billion, reflecting continued interest from traders despite spot selling. The long/short ratio for Binance and OKX is above 2.6, suggesting leverage is biased towards the long side.

However, liquidation data revealed that $28.5 million of short positions were extinguished in the past 24 hours, indicating active positioning amidst high volatility. Funding rates have normalized, which could support a short-term rebound, but a deeper rally would require confirmation from higher volumes and consistent ETF inflows.

Technical structure tightens ahead of breakout

Technically, Ethereum is trading within a large symmetrical triangle pattern that dates back to April. The upper bound is near $4,460, and the lower uptrend line provides strong support near $3,600.

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The 20-day EMA near $3,990 serves as immediate resistance, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,092, both of which need to be reverted to confirm bullish intent. On the downside, the 200-day EMA of $3,603 is a key level to watch, as a decisive break below it could widen losses towards $3,300.

Momentum indicators suggest neutrality with an RSI near 46 and a flat MACD histogram, reflecting that Ethereum is still in a consolidation phase awaiting a breakout trigger.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Rise?

For now, Ethereum price forecasts remain balanced between bullish resilience and institutional pressures. A pullback above $4,000 could attract fresh momentum and retest the $4,460 resistance, setting a breakout target between $4,800 and $5,000.

Conversely, if the ETF continues to experience outflows or falls below $3,600, losses could widen toward $3,300, potentially testing the health of the annual uptrend line.

The broader outlook for Ethereum will depend on whether inflows return to ETF products and whether macro sentiment stabilizes in early November. Until then, traders should monitor volume around $3,800-$4,000 for clues on the next directional move.

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