Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast, warning that corporate buying of Bitcoin, a key pillar of recent demand, has likely ended.
The bank currently believes that Bitcoin’s future rally will be driven by a single factor: exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, a change that could slow the pace of gains in the coming years.
Bitcoin backlash: “Painful but normal”
Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said in a new note that the bank is pushing back the timeline for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 and lowering its year-end price target from 2026 to 2029.
“We believe the recent decline in Bitcoin prices is rapid but within expectations. However, further corporate purchases of Bitcoin are unlikely as valuations no longer support it. “It’s not a crypto winter, it’s just a cold breeze,” Kendrick said.
Bitcoin’s recent price movements have worried investors, but Standard Chartered maintains that the decline does not indicate a structural recession and is consistent with historical patterns.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin is down about 36% from its all-time high on Oct. 6, a drop comparable to other drawdowns seen since the launch of the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF.
“While Bitcoin (BTC) price action has been challenging recently, the decline, while rapid, is within the range of ‘normal’ expectations,” Kendrick said, adding that similar declines have occurred over the past two years.
The timing of the peak fueled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin reaching its all-time high roughly 18 months after its April 2024 halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.
“The timing of the recent losses, reaching the October 6 high 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, fueled the ‘crypto winter’ narrative,” Kendrick added.
However, Standard Chartered rejects the idea that traditional halving-driven cycles still dominate Bitcoin price movements.
“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still valid. Rather, we believe that long-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he said.
Corporate Bitcoin purchases lose momentum
A more worrying signal, according to Standard Chartered, is that active Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is clearly coming to an end.
Kendrick said valuations no longer justify further expansion for these companies, which have played an increasingly prominent role in driving demand over the past year.
“That said, price trends are forcing us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we believe that Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasury Company (DAT) purchases are likely over as valuations, as measured by mNAV, a commonly used valuation metric for Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasury Company (DAT), no longer support further expansion of Bitcoin DAT,” he said.
The bank does not expect widespread selling from these companies, but it also does not expect them to support prices going forward.
“We expect consolidation rather than a sell-off, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick said.
ETF inflows provide important support
As corporate purchases of Bitcoin fade, Kendrick believes the next stage of Bitcoin’s price trajectory will depend almost entirely on ETFs.
“As a result, we believe that future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by only one leg: ETF purchases,” he said.
The change prompted Standard Chartered to postpone its most bullish outlook.
“Therefore, we have lowered our 2026-2029 year-end price forecast and now expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 in 2030 (versus 2028 previously),” Kendrick emphasized.
Still, the bank remains optimistic over the long term, but only over a longer timetable.
“We believe this goal is still achievable as portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight Bitcoin. Access to investments and decision-making by investment committees will take time, but we ultimately expect them to lead to significant upside for Bitcoin,” he added.
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