Alex Pruden, CEO of quantum developer Project Eleven, took issue with a recent CoinShares report that estimated that approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins (BTC) would be exposed to quantum computing, even though only approximately 10,200 BTC (approximately 0.05% of total supply) could cause market disruption if compromised.
As of this writing, although we disagree with the CoinShares report, Project Eleven believes that: 7 million BTC at risk Before the theoretical quantum attacker, as shown in the following figure.
For Pruden, the CoinShares diagnosis underestimates both. The magnitude of the problem and the urgency of addressing it. He also cautioned that Bitcoin’s security should not be based on expectations that quantum computing will advance slowly.
Direct questions to CoinShares reports
«The author claims that only about 1.6 million BTC are vulnerable and that perhaps 10,200 BTC could cause market turmoil. “That calculation is simply wrong,” Pruden said in his first criticism.
Project Eleven CEO said: address belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto They are concentrated around 1,096,152 BTC According to their analysis, it is spread across 21,924 addresses that could be vulnerable to quantum computing.
In particular, he mentioned P2PK (Payment to Public Key) addresses, a form used in the early days of Bitcoin. At this address, your public key will remain visible on the chain from the moment you receive the funds. Attacks using quantum algorithms become easier Like a shawl.
From there, Pruden broadened the scope of the problem, arguing that the vulnerability was not limited to its older form. “Addresses that have signed a transaction at least once and left residual funds are subject to quantum attacks,” he wrote. Contains many addresses with more bitcoinsexceeds the original type.
Pruden object to CoinShares source
The second criticism focused on the arguments CoinShares used to deny quantum urgency. “The ‘proof’ that quantum is far away comes from Ledger’s CTO,” he wrote, adding, “I respect the man, but this is an appeal to authority with obvious bias.”
According to Pruden, if quantum computing-resistant signatures are adopted, “Each device ledger Existing ones may become obsolete.”where he asked “to consider incentives and sources.”
Simplified report with views from Alex Pruden
The third point concerns the CoinShares company’s reporting. does not address certain complexities How to apply post-quantum solutions to already deployed chains.
Pruden lists the obstacles as follows: Millions of distributed keys that need to be migrated individuallythere is no central authority and a property model based solely on digital signatures.
According to Pruden, “The Bitcoin blockchain would need to be down for at most 76 days to process migration transactions from the current set of UTXOs.”
However, it denied disqualifying those who warn of quantum risks. “If quantum computers breaking the cryptographic foundations of trillions of dollars of digital assets is not a serious problem, I don’t know what is,” he wrote, concluding that caricaturing researchers and developers as opportunists is “counterproductive.”
Finally, Pruden concluded his analysis by acknowledging that there is a solution to this problem. “Blockchain is adaptable and post-quantum cryptography exists,” he said. But he cautioned against ignoring warnings just because the threat seems far away. “You’re really going to get caught unprepared.”.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
