Bitcoin is falling again, and the overall mood of the market is changing. Traders who were celebrating six-digit prices just a few weeks ago are suddenly watching key levels evaporate.
The move below $106,400 was the first real warning sign, and the collapse to $99,000 confirmed that the market was no longer treating those supports as areas of serious concern.
The chart is currently pointing to the lower bound of the same ETF-era channel that has guided Bitcoin’s entire structure since January 2024.
I have been tracking these horizontal channels since the day the ETF was launched. These served as highly accurate markers of support and resistance, like a real-time heatmap showing where liquidity was concentrated.
Each colored band represents a price range where Bitcoin has spent time consolidating, indicating that leverage has accumulated there and market participants are locking in their decisions at that level. Breaking through a channel requires meaningful pressure, whether it’s buyers overwhelming sellers or vice versa.
That pressure is now clearly coming from the seller side.
A strange cycle from the beginning
This cycle never applies to regular templates. Historically, Bitcoin has never hit new highs this close to a halving.
However, in early 2024, Bitcoin hit its previous high of $69,000, a few months before the halving. This was the fastest breakout in Bitcoin’s history and set the tone for the year.
By October of this year, the price had soared to $126,000. I called it a top based on previous cycle timings and behavior regarding half-day dates.
If that judgment is correct, we are now in the first chapter of a bear market.
Typically, these transitions are explained in terms of cycle timing, but in the age of ETFs, things get complicated. Although issuance is still declining, liquidity appears to be the dominant force now.
With billions of dollars a day flowing in and out of the market through regulated vehicles, the market will react very differently to the old retail-driven structure.
Even with these changes, the channels derived from price trends in the ETF era remain surprisingly consistent.
Breakdown by level
Bitcoin is currently below two of the most important bands. The $106,400 support level has acted as an upside for months, and the $99,000 level was built on heavy trading activity during June.
Losing both of these zones in one long-term move shows how quickly an institution’s liquidity can be yanked. Buyers who championed these areas earlier this year are no longer intervening.
Currently, the price is trending towards the bottom of the orange channel, around $93,000. This region had solid engagement early in the trend, so while it is not a sure-fire rebound zone, it could slow the decline.
If that fails, the next major area will be the purple channel. That lower limit is about $85,000.
What concerns me here is the lack of price action so far. Bitcoin passed through this band quickly the last time it passed through it. This means that the market has not had time to build a strong positioning there.
Channels that have had little consolidation in the past often provide weak support because they don’t have much leverage locked in at that level. Either the top of the purple channel becomes the point where buyers draw the line, or the price slides directly through it, paving the way to the green channel.
The green band is at its bottom at about $79,000, which is more substantial territory. Bitcoin spent time consolidating in this zone early in the cycle, so once this zone is reached, the reaction should be stronger.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see buyers reappear here, especially if sentiment stabilizes around the idea that prices below $80,000 represent an opportunity.
Below that lies deep structural support, the red and blue channels, that have formed throughout the trading months of 2024. These represent $49,000 to $56,000, an area that Bitcoin has defended repeatedly before beginning its rally toward six digits.
Reaching these levels this year would be a very large correction and would be more in line with typical cycle bottoms, which typically fall deeper into multi-year patterns, usually around 2026 or 2027.
liquidity issues
The importance of liquidity cannot be avoided here. The market experienced the second-largest ETF outflow in history yesterday.
Risk appetite is waning, and the financial institutions that drove Bitcoin to new highs appear to be reducing their exposure. In such an environment, it becomes difficult to collect and retain $100,000.
If the outflow continues, there is a real possibility that Bitcoin will continue to move through the lower channel I have outlined. This doesn’t require fundamentals to collapse.
It just requires a sustained risk-off sentiment and a steady shift towards cash and short-term assets. When liquidity dries up, Bitcoin trades like a leveraged proxy for the macro environment.
So how low can it go?
Based on your channel structure and current flow environment:
- $93,000 Next is the logic test.
- $85,000 Works if orange support fails.
- $79,000 is the most realistic deep target, a level that can be maintained even in the event of a strong correction.
- $49,000 to $56,000 We are well below the ultimate cycle support and likely to be in 2026-27 unless liquidity worsens dramatically.
It’s tempting to think that six digits is Bitcoin’s baseline right now, and that a drop into the 80s or 70s would be irrational. The structure shows otherwise.
Clear areas of support and resistance formed during the ETF era, and Bitcoin is currently falling through those areas, just as it went up through support and resistance areas on the way up. The lower channels will continue to function until liquidity changes.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
