Even in the midst of Bitcoin (BTC)’s decline, which gives the impression of a “crypto winter” (a bearish period for digital assets), some are daring to question whether the historic four-year cycle is still valid.
The 4-year cycle is a way to explain Bitcoin’s historical movementA period of time roughly associated with the halving, an event that typically cuts the amount of new BTC issued by half every four years, with alternating periods of large rallies, corrections, and bear market phases.
According to this historical action, 2025 should be a bullish year (as it has been) and 2026 should be a bearish year (as it is, at least so far).
The following graph provided by TradingView shows that these cycles have already repeated four times in Bitcoin’s history. Each yellow vertical line will be cut in half. Invariably, the year after a halving, digital currencies hit a new high, and the year after the high was a year of decline.
Could Bitcoin’s behavior be different this time around?
But investment firm Fidelity Digital Assets suggests this time may be different. In a report published on February 24, 2026, the firm’s analyst Zach Wainwright argues that “as Bitcoin matures, price trends will move away from previous cycles,” coming to the following strong conclusion:
A strong case can be made that the typical four-year cycle that investors are accustomed to may no longer apply.
Zach Wainwright, the faithful analyst.
Fidelity’s paper is based on three ideas above all: The first is “Bitcoin’s fundamentals have changed”. The company emphasizes that BTC is no longer the marginal, purely speculative asset it was in its early days, but rather an asset that is “significantly larger and more liquid than in the past” and increasingly integrated “with traditional markets through exchange traded products (ETPs), traditional exchanges, and public companies.”
As a second idea, I would suggest the following. “Changes in volatility dynamics” will occur. “The current cycle shows a markedly different pattern, with volatility declining even as prices reach new highs,” the report said.
Fidelity has since claimed that “the continued low volatility amidst new price highs indicates that Bitcoin is becoming more mature and may no longer follow the historical pattern of four-year cycles.”
And thirdly, Entering a new actor. Fidelity highlights “growing Bitcoin accumulation among publicly traded companies” and the weight of spot ETFs in the US. He highlights that “these two groups currently control almost 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply” and that this “represents a significant shift in Bitcoin’s demand dynamics.”
In reality, everything looks the same (for now) with Bitcoin
These are Fidelity’s claims. The point is It is one thing for certain characteristics of the market to change, but it is quite another for the four-year cycle to disappear. actually. Because even if we accept all the factors listed by Fidelity, the most basic facts of price trends still fit the historical scenario.
In fact, the report itself acknowledges that the analysis period for the “2025 cycle” is “from February 26, 2024 to October 26, 2025.” That is, we identify a major bullish leg immediately after the halving in 2024 and extend it until 2025, when it should become bullish according to Bitcoin’s historical logic. It doesn’t break the cycle. Rather, I affirm it.
Additionally, Fidelity details that the price marked “a new high of over $126,000 in October 2025.” Again, this matches the classic pattern. In other words, a new all-time high will be reached the year after the halving.
And he also acknowledged that there has been a “recent price decline,” with Bitcoin “below $70,000 in February 2026.” So after the peak in 2025, there will be a strong correction in 2026, exactly the year that historically tends to be bearish.
Therefore, the “but” in the title is not minor. Fidelity does not prove the cycle is over. It shows that, at most, The intensity of the cycle may have changed.
His own conclusions are more nuanced than they appear. The company is not saying that Bitcoin is phaseless, but rather that “the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle of explosive highs and 80% crashes could be a thing of the past.” The keyword here is “tradition.” That is, when the conclusion is reached, the violence of the cycle is discussed, not necessarily its existence.
The entry of new actors does not change the rhythm of Bitcoin
Whether presenting metrics like MVRV, the Puel Multiple, or its new “return/volatility ratio,” what Fidelity emphasizes is a “remarkably stable” and “relatively constrained” market with “sustainably high levels of profitability combined with reduced volatility.” This does not invalidate the fact that Bitcoin continues to be temporarily ordered around the halving.followed by a year of euphoria and a post-high bear phase.
In other words, this cycle may not be as wild as 2013, 2017, and 2021. Institutionalization can alleviate extreme situations. As Fidelity puts it, Bitcoin may be “coming out of its most volatile days for good.” but That does not equate to being able to say with certainty that the four-year cycle is over, at least for now.
Looking at specific trends in recent years, the order is still continuing: a halving in 2024, a high in 2025, and a decline in 2026. That’s exactly what the market has been showing us for some time. Fidelity offers an interesting argument that the pattern may be loosening. However, observable facts so far do not indicate a change in the cycle. Rather, they show It’s the same old cycle, albeit perhaps with new manners.
Finally, let us recall a quote from an editorial published by CriptoNoticias on February 8, 2026. “Over the past few months, many have declared that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over and that the institutional ones are its enforcers. But reality has shown that the entry of new actors does not change the rhythm of Bitcoin. Now they will also experience the first Bitcoin bear market that affected all mortals.
