Ostium Labs’ Market Outlook #55 asserts that Bitcoin’s higher time frame bullish structure has survived last week’s volatility and is now “back to the highs” subject to spot holds above $107,000. “While trading above $107,000, we believe the next move will be back to the highs, with $112,000 likely to act as local support,” the note said, adding that the firm still expects the price to enter the “confluence of overhead resistance at $133,000 by the end of the month.”
The team characterizes last week’s deleveraging as the “Great Reset,” claiming that the largest liquidation event in crypto history removed excessive leverage without destroying the weekly structure. On the weekly chart, major support remains intact, with the core down to around $107,000 regained to a close of $115,000, which Ostium reads as confirmation that momentum remains bullish on higher time frames. Disable is accurate. “A weekly close below last week’s low is now a clear invalidation…a close to $107,000…and we definitely have more immediate concerns with it trading at $99,000 thereafter.”
In our daily articles, Ostium looks at the classic sweep-and-reversal sequence. The price hit the high of the previous range twice near $126,300, but failed to break above $123,800 and “collapsed”, eventually breaking into the 200-day moving average. This is the area that the desk had flagged as the likely final level for capitulation in early October.
The view from here is clear. “Those expecting less than $100,000 are going to be on the sidelines for a long time. If they don’t get it in the biggest liquidation event in crypto history, I don’t think they’ll get it until we enter a bear market.” The invalidation of the tactic on the time frame would be a close below the 200-DMA, which would push the 360-DMA close to $100,000 and constitute Ostium’s “line in the sand for a full-fledged fall into bear market territory.”
Path dependence is important for upward calls. Ostium expects the historical high near $112,000 to act as support and form a higher low, and expects “acceptance above ~$116,000” to set up a rotation to the upper end of the range at $123.8,000, followed by “price discovery above.” The desk’s short-term timing is surprisingly punchy. “If I put a gun to my head, I think I could trade $125,000 by the beginning of next week and $133,000 by the end of the month.”
The preferred long setup for traders is to weaken from $110,000 to $112,000 at the beginning of the week and then establish further lows. Use the daily close below $107,000 (hard stop is $105,000) as a risk and target the higher range at least $121,000. In contrast, a countertrend short would have to rise to the $121,000 confluence, be rejected, drop back below $118,000 on the daily chart, and then fade into the $110,000-$112,000 zone, but only if the high and low have not yet formed.
In Ostium’s view, the evidence supports the reset-and-extend thesis. The firm highlights extinguished open interest, Binance netlongs returning to “liberation day” lows, a compressed 3-month annualized base, and new liquidation maps for 1-week and 1-month periods, all consistent with a cleaner tape of trend continuation.
This week’s calendar is thick but easy to read. A Week of Speeches (Powell, Bailey, Lagarde), New York Empire State Manufacturing Print, Philadelphia Fed Survey, US Industrial Production. Ostium’s framework treats these events as potential catalysts rather than trend definitions. As long as $107,000 holds and $112,000 acts as a springboard, the structural bias will continue to move higher towards $133,000.
The core of the paper is the psychology of binary investors after the purge. “This kind of event signals a tipping point, either solidifying the belief that a bear market has begun…or solidifying the belief that leverage washout provides a runway for longer-term price increases into the first quarter of next year,” Ostium writes. The desk is firmly in the latter camp, repeating that Bitcoin “looks more bullish today than it did at the beginning of last week.”
Ostium’s overall asset reading leans towards supporting the crypto beta complex slightly beyond Bitcoin, provided near-term conditions align. In the case of Ethereum, the weekly structure is “unlikely a ceiling,” with the closing price above trendline resistance and $4,400 expected to trigger a breakout to an all-time high. The research team believes that “ETH will break above $4,950 within 10 days and trade towards $5,750 in November,” which is likely to be the lowest price in the fourth quarter.
Regarding ETH/BTC, the desk calls last week’s flash to 0.0319 a high/low, and expects ETH to outperform towards the end of the year, provided it regains 0.0375 and eventually breaks the trend line, which could curb BTC’s dominance without jeopardizing Bitcoin’s own trend. DXY’s rally appears to be coming to an end, with resistance near 100 and an impending rollover likely to reduce macro headwinds for risk assets.
For U.S. stocks, Ostium still expects “long-term upside,” with new SPX highs by the end of the month and a solid November as the buyback blackout ends and earnings season progresses. Improving stock breadth tends to coincide with constructive cryptocurrency flows.
Finally, in OTHERS, the altcoin index recorded a historic rise to its 360-week moving average before regaining support. With the derivatives position in “complete decline,” Ostium is currently looking for a rally to its local lows, a return to its November start-of-the-year value of $335 billion, and, if confirmed, a push toward cycle and ATH resistance, a situation that typically accompanies Bitcoin’s healthier, less vulnerable uptrend.
In summary, desk messages are consistent across time frames and assets. The reset worked, the deactivation is clear at $107,000, $112,000 should be the pivot, the upward waypoint is $133,000, and the macro calendar is more likely to adjust the path than derail the destination. Ostium summarizes: “While trading above $107,000, the next move will be back higher.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $111,509.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
