Bitcoin price has spent most of the new year above the psychological $90,000 level and appears to be off to a good start. While the prices of top cryptocurrencies have slowed recently, there has been significant bullish intent in the market so far in 2026.
Now, this recent optimism somewhat contradicts recent predictions that this could be the start of a bear market for the Bitcoin price. This raises the question of whether the bull market is likely to restart or if BTC price is only witnessing a relief rally.
BTC’s Recent Bounce Is Just a Bear Market Relief Rally — Analyst
In a January 9 post on the Market experts have nailed the answer on on-chain and technical price data.
First, Maartunn acknowledged that the recent surge was inevitable as the price of Bitcoin found support near the ETF realized price of $85,000. This price level represents the average cost basis for BTC ETF investors, and as expected, buyers defended their positions, leading to a price rally.
This phenomenon is highlighted by another on-chain indicator, the Coinbase Premium Gap. Coinbase Premium Gap measures the difference between the price of Coinbase and the price of Bitcoin on global exchanges. The index began rising shortly after New Year’s Eve, signaling renewed buying activity from US-based investors, according to Maartunn.
Additionally, spot exchange-traded funds began seeing strong capital inflows just days after the Coinbase premium gap increased. “This is more of a strategic purchase/portfolio rebalancing (new quarter, new year) rather than emotional FOMO,” Maartunn added.
Source: @JA_Maartun on X
However, cryptocurrency analysts pointed out that during this rally, Bitcoin price only rose to a high of $94,000 before being rejected. Essentially, this means that the flagship cryptocurrency does not have the strength to break that resistance.
Maartunn also noted that Bitcoin is still trading below important on-chain levels such as short-holder realized price and whale realized price, both of which are acting as significant overhead resistance.
The on-chain analyst noted that according to his on-chain observations, the recent bounce was merely a bear market relief rally and not a continuation of the trend, despite the price rising by about 10%. Martunn concluded that only a clean breakout and sustained close above $94,000 would signal a strong intention for the Bitcoin price to rebuild its bullish structure.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is $90,360, down nearly 1% in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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