Analysis firm Swissbloc details how financial institutions are “depleting the market of circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC)” and setting the stage for a supply shock.
The move is far from an isolated retail move and shows “long-term holders are exhibiting slow outflows, while whales and short-term holders are buying with conviction,” the firm said.
SwissBlock highlights in its analysis: Mass transfers of BTC into structures such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries seeking long-term exposure. These instruments are sucking liquidity from exchanges, as evidenced by the more than $1.8 billion inflows into ETFs from January 12th to yesterday, January 15th.
So far this week, four days’ worth of capital inflows have already accumulated, highlighting the resilience of retail interest despite Bitcoin’s price volatility. A huge inflow of $843 million was recorded on January 14 alone, of which the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), managed by BlackRock, received $648 million.
The growth of these vehicles is as follows: Total ETF net assets reach $125 billionequivalent to 6.58% of Bitcoin market capitalization.
A typical supply shock is being witnessed as financial institutions reduce the amount of Bitcoin available in the market, which could push Bitcoin prices above $97,000, according to SwissBlock’s technical forecast based on the rate of Bitcoin outflows from exchanges.
Behavior of Bitcoin market participants
Analyzing changes in net positions reveals different behaviors among different types of participants. Long-Term Investors (LTH), generally portfolios that have not moved units for more than 155 days, are in the red zone, suggesting that some long-term investors are taking profits at these price levels, as seen in the chart.
Bitcoin miners, on the other hand, are slightly in the red/neutral zone. This is common as they sell some of what they mine to cover operating costs.
However, the current market drivers are two other groups. STH (Short Term Holders), also known as short term investors or “weakers”, are at the peak of their accumulation. This indicates that new or speculative capital is entering the market with great force.
At the same time, whales, which are wallets holding more than 1,000 units of BTC, are also reaching the peak of accumulation. This is a bullish signal as large capital is buying.
The fundamental indicator of this phenomenon is the exchange’s BTC balance. Approximately 46,000 units have been recalled and are in the negative red zone. This is positive for the price of Bitcoin because it means fewer Bitcoins are available for sale on exchanges as users are withdrawing their Bitcoins.
Reductions in liquid supply typically precede significant price changes, as continued demand leaves fewer assets available to fulfill orders.
Expanding Corporate Bitcoin Vaults
Corporate profits are not limited to public investment vehicles (such as ETFs). CriptoNoticias reports that direct balances of companies also show an increasing trend of accumulation. BTC-based corporate financials for public and private companies from July 15, 2025 to January 11, 2026 It grew from 854,000 to 1,110,000,000.
This represents an increase of 260,000 units and highlights the continued expansion of corporate balance sheet exposure to digital currencies. This number means that companies earned an average of 43,000 credits per month last semester.. Adoption by corporate treasury makes Bitcoin even more scarce.
Future projections indicate that this shortage will become even more acute. If the pace of acquisitions by institutional investors and companies continues, the market could face an illiquidity scenario that could push digital asset valuations to all-time highs. The market may be moving to a stage where available supply cannot meet large institutional demand.
