PlanB, Market Analyst Recognized for Predictive Models From stock to flow (S2F) has warned that on April 1, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $59,000 before resuming its upward trend.
“Like I said, I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC falls below the 200-week moving average ($59,000) and realized price ($54,000) before the next rally,” he noted on the X-Post.
Still, the company maintains its long-term forecast. Levels close to $500,000 within the range of $250,000 to $1 million of dollars
To support its claim, PlanB shares a Bitcoin price chart that combines several indicators.
First of all, the black line represents the 200-week moving average, one of the most relevant support levels in BTC’s history. This is an average of values over the past approximately four years and has served as a bearish floor in previous cycles. Like in 2022 after the fall from all-time highs in 2021.
A gray line will appear above that reference, which corresponds to the realized price of the coin created by Satoshi Nakamoto. This indicator reflects the average value at which the currently circulating BTC is fetched and is usually interpreted as the “fundamental cost” of the market.
The price of BTC is then represented by points whose colors are not random. Each includes a relative strength index (RSI). An indicator that measures market strength on a scale of 0 to 100.
Red and orange tones indicate overbought areas, green indicates more neutral conditions, and blue indicates overbought areas. Like the current one (RSI 44), suggesting relative price weakness.
Additionally, there is a dashed line representing the expected trajectory according to the S2F model. As you can see, The average expected price for the current cycle is approximately $500,000a level that supports PlanB’s long-term bullish vision.
What is a stock-to-flow model?
The S2F model attempts to explain. Price due to Bitcoin scarcityHowever, the idea is easier than you think.
This works by comparing the amount of BTC that already exists (stock) to the amount of BTC that is created each year (flow). An asset is scarce when fewer new units are issued compared to existing units.
In other words, if something is abundant and continues to be produced in large quantities, it is not scarce. However, if quantities are limited and rarely produced, their value tends to be high. In the case of BTC, the issuance decreases every four years in line with the halving, so fewer and fewer new coins enter the market. Therefore, their rarity increases over time.
In this model, BTC’s index is close to 113, more than double that of gold (about 60), meaning it is more rare. The logic is straightforward: If something is rare, it should be more valuable.
For many years, this approach has worked very well for tracking price trends. However, this issue is being debated today, as markets appear to be increasingly responsive not only to scarcity, but also to factors such as global liquidity, interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, the debate intensified after investment expert Tommaso Scarpellini published an analysis on March 27, 2026, claiming that the mathematical models that have been explaining BTC prices for years are “failing miserably.”
His paper says scarcity, a key bullish argument, is no longer dominating price action as it was in previous cycles. The Stock-to-Flow model is a good representation of trends through 2022; Today, there is evidence of a growing disconnect with current market dynamics..
In fact, Scarpellini warns: This type of model has lost its presence in the communityBecause other factors start to weigh in.
Background: Macroeconomics and geopolitics determine prices
The analysis and criticism of PlanB’s model takes place in a context where Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by external variables.
Tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, affect oil prices and, in turn, global inflation. In addition to this, Federal Reserve System (FED) decision to keep interest rates at 3.75%limiting the liquidity available for risk assets.
Additionally, private credit vulnerabilities are putting pressure on the financial system and creating a more unfavorable environment for markets.
In this scenario, BTC managed to recover towards the $68,000 area, but the market has not yet found a clear direction.
PlanB’s approach reveals the increasingly obvious tension between long-term theoretical models and markets that react in the short-term to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
Therefore, a drop to $59,000 is not unusual for analysts. However, this is part of the normal behavior of the cycle before a new bullish impulse occurs.
