Bitcoin is about to end the first quarter of 2026 in a difficult situation. The largest cryptocurrency is trading at around $66,400, after a quarter in which it lost nearly half its value from its October 2025 peak of around $125,000. Macro and geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on risk assets and key structural levels remain unrecovered; $BTC We enter Q2 with no obvious bullish momentum in sight.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
On the daily time frame, it is clear that the downward channel that has dominated Bitcoin price movements since late 2025 remains intact. Both the 100-day moving average (about $77,000) and the 200-day moving average (about $90,000) have fallen above the current price. The $75,000-$80,000 zone, which previously served as an important support base, then turned into resistance, rejecting all attempts at recovery in March.
Immediate support lies in the $60,000 range held during the February capitulation drop. If the closing price falls below that level, $BTC To the $50,000 zone. On the other hand, the RSI is hovering around 40, reflecting that although the market is stabilizing, it is far from improving. Therefore, a definitive daily close above $75,000 remains a minimum requirement for a reliable change in the broader trend.
$BTC/USDT 4 hour chart
After spending several weeks compressing within an upflag pattern between roughly $60,000 and $75,000; $BTC It has broken out of the downside pattern and is currently consolidating around $66. The current range is clearly indicated by a red box on the chart. The lower bound of the triangle, which had been support in multiple retests, collapsed at the end of March, and the price has struggled to recover it ever since.
The 4-hour RSI has recovered from oversold territory and is trending higher toward the mid-$40s. This leaves room for a short-term rebound. However, the important tests are: $BTC You can reuse broken pattern support and build on top of it. Otherwise, the path remains open for a retest of the key $60,000-$62,000 support zone.
On-chain analysis
One of the most attractive data points heading into the second quarter was Bitcoin’s exchange reserves, which fell to around $2.7 million. $BTC. This is the lowest level in the entire dataset dating back to late 2022. The decline over the past few weeks has been particularly relentless as the market attempts to form a bottom above $60,000.
Taken individually, a decline in exchange reserves is usually interpreted as a bullish structural signal. This is because fewer coins on exchanges means less immediate sell-side availability. However, context is important.
Reserves have declined with prices rather than ahead of recovery, suggesting that outflows reflect accumulation by long-term holders rather than inflow demand. Therefore, until new buyers come in and turn supply tightness into real price increases, the on-chain situation remains constructive in theory, but not confirmed in practice.
