Bitcoin has struggled to gain traction near the $90,000 level, but at least one high-profile buyer appears to be leaning in the opposite direction.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back said on X (formerly Twitter) that “Bitfinex whales” are buying about 450 Bitcoins per day at current price levels, a pace that translates to about $40.6 million in daily demand when Bitcoin is trading at about $90,233 at the time of writing.
According to Buck:
The Bitfinex whale initially had 300 BTC/day (purchases) and has now increased to 450 BTC at around $90,000. (This is) the same as the (total) number of Bitcoins that are mined in a day. Approximately $470/sec all day long.
In theory, a persistent buyer of that size could in principle offset additional new supply, even on margin, as long as flows continue.
But the bigger question is whether these big buyers can change the nature of a market that has struggled to sustain recent gains, with participants quickly locking in profits or cutting losses to rally.
Whale-sized bid meets whale-sized skepticism
Notably, the Bitfinex whale purchase story is not happening in a vacuum.
According to Santiment data, Bitcoin’s “whales and sharks” continue to grow despite weak conditions, with wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoins, with an increase of 36,322 BTC in the past nine days. This means that their collective wealth holdings increased by 0.27%.
This kind of absorption can be important in markets where marginal flows often set the tone, especially when prices are fixed around widely watched exercise levels.
However, the accumulated data can be reassuring at first glance, as it does not automatically reveal the price levels at which holders become sellers, or whether the broader market is deep enough to sustain prices through overhead supply.
This is why Bitfinex’s bid, if genuine and sustained, may be more interesting as a stabilizing force than as a directional prediction.
This is because stable buyers can delay panic and reduce the probability of a chaotic decline without necessarily causing a surge in demand that introduces a new trend in the market.
Bitcoin’s ‘Failed Breakout’ Map Shows Problems
In its latest Week On-Chain report, analytics firm Glassnode argued that Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase limited by certain levels related to cost-based behavior.
The firm has identified a true market average of approximately $81,100 as downside support and a short term holder’s cost basis of approximately $98,400 as upside resistance.
This upper band is important because it is where “break-even supply” from recent buyers becomes increasingly active. In practice, this means that a pullback into this area may result in selling pressure rather than tapping upward trend momentum, as holders who bought near the high take advantage of the strength to close sideways.
This is further exacerbated by the fact that the market has not fully recovered from its previous circulation.
The company said recent gains have “partially filled” what it calls an “air gap” between about $93,000 and $98,000. This was a sign that the supply previously held by BTC’s top buyers was being redistributed to newer participants.
However, above $100,000, Glassnode still has a “wide and dense” supply zone that is gradually maturing and growing into a long-term holder base.
This unresolved overhang may limit attempts above $98,400 and $100,000 unless demand accelerates meaningfully and sustainably.
Meanwhile, this same friction is also manifesting in Bitcoin holders’ profit and loss realization behavior.
Glassnode highlighted that realized losses are dominated by 3-6 month cohorts, with additional contributions from 6-12 month holders. This pattern is associated with “pain-driven” selling by investors who have accumulated above $110,000 and are now exiting as the price returns to the entry range.
On the margin side, realizations increased from the 0% to 20% margin tier, consistent with the trend of breakeven sellers and swing traders taking thin profits rather than holding for expansion.
In summary, the on-chain situation explains why Bitcoin’s rebound feels heavy even when spot conditions improve.
Derivatives treat $90,000 as a fault line
This is where the Bitfinex whale story intersects with microstructure.
Glassnode pointed out that dealers’ gamma positioning is biased downwards, takers are bidding to protect the downside, and dealers are stuck with short gamma below $90,000 and long gamma above that.
Its meaning is asymmetrical. Below $90,000, hedging flows can amplify downside moves. Above $90,000, dealer positioning can weaken follow-through and turn the level into a point of friction rather than a launching pad.
If large, stable spot buyers are actually increasing their trades around the $90,000 mark, that could be disproportionately problematic. This is not because upside is guaranteed, but because it may reduce the chance of a slide into the “short gamma” zone where the move could accelerate.
Glassnode said the derivatives market appears isolated outside of whale watching. The report called participation in futures trading a “ghost town” and noted that trading volumes in seven-day futures have shrunk, allowing price fluctuations without meaningful volume expansion.
The firm also flagged open interest corrections with no corresponding volume, a pattern more consistent with churn and risk recycling than new leverage entering the system.
Options markets, on the other hand, primarily price risk on the front end. According to Glassnode, one-week implied volatility rose more than 13 volatility points due to declines in macro and geopolitical headlines, while three-month volatility rose only about two points and six-month volatility was little changed.
On Bitfinex itself, leverage positioning provides a different lens.
The number of bullish Bitcoin bets made using borrowed funds on exchanges, known as margin long positions, is decreasing, according to data from Tradingview. The year-to-date total has fallen from a peak of 72,000 Bitcoins to around 70,639 Bitcoins.
Thereafter, it rose slightly to around 71,000 Bitcoins at the time of writing, suggesting another round of bullish buying during the decline. However, the overall trend over the past month remains downward.
This is important because long margin positions have historically acted as an inverse indicator in past cycles, typically peaking when the market is struggling and then depleting when a new uptrend begins.
What you can and cannot do with sustainable whale bidding
Considering all of the above, the most disciplined way to think about whale bidding is in terms of structure, not narrative.
In the base case, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within Glassnode’s cost base range, with support above about $81,100, but struggles to sustain bids to about $98,400 and a supply overhang of over $100,000.
In such an environment, continuing bidding whales can sustain an orderly decline, but will not automatically break out of the market unless spot participation expands beyond selective absorption.
In the bullish case, demand accelerates enough to reclaim and hold $98,400, forcing the market to absorb it rather than repeatedly distributing it into a dense supply zone above $100,000.
For that to happen, the Bitcoin market will need to accumulate more sustainably, and derivatives trading volumes will need to re-enter the sector in a way that supports trend formation rather than illiquid pops.
In the bearish case, BTC price drops below $90,000 and cannot recover quickly, pushing the market into a zone where dealers short Gamma and hedging flows could strengthen the downside.
In that scenario, the presence of whales is a key variable. If the bidding continues, the movement could slow down. If it weakens, the market risks pulling back towards deeper cost-based support.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
