After two years of waiting for an “altcoin season” that never came, retail crypto traders lost out on about $800 billion in potential profits by betting on Bitcoin’s dominance.
According to a new report from 10x Research, altcoins have lagged Bitcoin by that amount this cycle, making it one of the biggest relative underperformances since 2017.
This data highlights major changes in market structure. Market structure is now increasingly defined by institutional flows, Bitcoin ETFs, and risk aversion, rather than the speculative rotation patterns that fueled previous bull markets.
Retail awaits ‘ghost season’
Traditionally, altcoin season refers to periods when smaller cryptocurrencies dramatically outperform Bitcoin, absorbing capital from benchmark assets and delivering very large short-term gains.
In past cycles, particularly in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin profits flowed into Ethereum, and then into mid-cap stocks and meme tokens.
However, 10x Research noted that this cycle has reversed that pattern. Instead of rotation, liquidity was consolidated around Bitcoin.
According to the company, data shows that investors are reallocating large amounts of capital away from riskier tokens and into BTC-denominated products.
It states:
“Over the past 30 days, our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a bottoming out in Bitcoin’s dominance. This change followed 75 days in which the model favored altcoins and coincided with Ethereum’s uptrend, but that trend has clearly come to an end.”
Additionally, 10X Research said retail traders in South Korea, long considered a driving force behind altcoin speculation, also abandoned trading.
For context, data from Messari shows trading volumes at Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, have fallen significantly this year as traders pivoted to US-listed crypto stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy.
10x Research claims that this transition has drained both liquidity and belief from the altcoin complex.
especially, crypto slate Previous reports support this claim, pointing out how altcoins have stalled compared to Bitcoin.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s market capitalization exceeded $2.3 trillion in early October, hitting a new all-time high of about $126,000. Meanwhile, altcoin market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) remains below its November 2021 peak of $1.6 trillion.
By mid-October, TOTAL2ES had only reached $1.48 trillion, about $120 billion short of its previous high, even though Bitcoin outperformed it by 84%. 10x Research’s “$800 billion in missed benefits” figure stems from this gap.
10x Research writes:
“Liquidity, momentum, and belief have all moved elsewhere, and the altcoin market has become eerily quiet.”
Considering this, Coinperp’s Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how many of the top 100 tokens outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day period, only managed to peak above 70 in early September, dropping below the 75 mark that defines a true altseason, and has since fallen to 13 at the time of writing.
Altcoins are disappearing
According to Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, the problem is deeper than a temporary sentiment.
She pointed out that venture capital investment in early-stage Web3 projects has significantly decreased, depriving the space of new stories and token launches.
In fact, a Galaxy Research report revealed that crypto VC activity has fallen significantly compared to previous bull markets. In fact, the second quarter of 2025 was the second lowest for venture investments in cryptocurrency and blockchain startups since the fourth quarter of 2020.
Chen added that the recent market shock on October 11 wiped out around $20 billion from leveraged crypto position holders, “dealing a devastating blow to altcoins.”
She added:
“Retail investors trading altcoins face a terrible risk-reward ratio.”
Considering this, the BitGet CEO stated that a widespread altcoin season “will not arrive in 2025 or 2026.”
On the other hand, she noted that some exceptions may exist for projects that issue infrastructure tokens tied to real-world assets (RWA), stablecoins, and payment protocols.
Chen argues that while these “infrastructure plays” are unlikely to issue volatile native tokens, they could anchor the next phase of growth. Indeed, Ripple’s cross-border rails, Circle’s USDC ecosystem, and tokenized treasury platform have already demonstrated that traction is shifting from speculation to services.
But retail curiosity remains. According to Google Trends data, global search interest in “altcoins” reached its highest level in five years in August of this year, rivaling the level of excitement last seen during the Ethereum run-up in 2018.
How educational institutions are rewriting their strategies
Unlike the retail-driven frenzy of 2021, the current cycle is being shaped by institutional investors.
According to 10x Research, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury participation, and high-yield stablecoins are redefining what is considered “safe” cryptocurrency exposure.
Notably, spot crypto ETFs have recorded over $40 billion in new inflows this year, significantly outpacing other markets.
As a result, retail traders chasing quick returns on altcoins have found themselves sidelined. As such, even modest gains in assets like Solana and Avalanche quickly stalled due to thin order volume and limited fundamental factors.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
