Kim did exactly what a safe haven is supposed to do. It went vertically.
On January 26th, as investors rushed into insurance, the bullion market soared past the psychological $5,000 barrier, briefly topping $5,100 an ounce. The move extended the precious metal’s historic rally of 64% in 2025, its biggest annual gain since 1979.
This increase shows that investors are actively grappling with the triple anxieties of our time: increasing geopolitics, policy unpredictability, and declining fiscal and institutional stability.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, still carries the label of “digital gold” and does not reap such rewards. The largest cryptocurrency is currently trading around $87,950, down about 2% since the beginning of the year.
This divergence we are seeing today is not a failure of the asset class. Rather, it simply reflects their current level of maturity. Gold took thousands of years to develop its history as a store of value. Bitcoin has been around for less than 20 years.
Therefore, in times of true global crisis, there is a great need for teenage assets to act with the same weight as metals thousands of years ago.
But the market is watching. Every time gold spikes and Bitcoin falls, the correlation data is updated. And right now, the data shows that the two assets still don’t speak the same language.
The weight behind the gold rally
The rise of gold is a story of flux with deep institutional inertia behind it.
Market observers see current price developments as a classic safeguard against geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainty.
This could be related to a weaker dollar and increased central bank diversification from the US, helping to keep the bid sustainable rather than event-driven.
Key details strengthen your forward-looking framework. This isn’t just a retail panic. This rally has been fueled by continued central bank purchases and large inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
Analysts are now floating a scenario in which the metal price exceeds $6,000 in 2026, with upside forecasts reaching $7,150 if uncertainty remains high.
JPMorgan’s own model clearly illustrates this structural tailwind. The bank expects the average price of gold to be around $5,055 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The forecast assumes that investor demand and central bank purchases will remain at around 566 tonnes per quarter through 2026.
Additionally, JPMorgan reiterated its long-term goal of $6,000 per ounce by 2028.
The conclusion is clear. As confidence increases, gold is behaving like a neutral reserve asset.
The buyer base, which includes central banks, traditional allocators, and ETFs, already knows how to scale in times of crisis. This is a mature market and responds efficiently to stress signals.
Market Plumbing Gate Bitcoin Haven Status
Bitcoin’s haven story overlaps considerably with paper gold. It provides a theoretical hedge against scarcity, non-sovereign currency status, and decline in value.
However, the transmission mechanisms for both assets are very different.
This divergence is most visible in ETF flow data.
According to data from SoSo Value, the 12 spot BTC ETFs in the US started 2026 with net inflows of approximately $1.2 billion in the first two trading days, an amount that suggests financial institutions will put money into BTC when the macro environment feels constructive.
However, their subsequent activities were the exact opposite of what they would have done in a “safe place.” For the week ending January 23, the Spot BTC ETF recorded net outflows of $1.33 billion, its worst week since February 2025.
This spill represents typical risk-averse behavior. This shows that capital is outflowing as uncertainty increases, which is exactly the pattern that is currently being replaced by gold.
Next, there is the issue of the positioning of derivatives. Deribits data also showed that the BTC market has returned to defensive hedging from call rates at the beginning of the year. Specifically, the 7-day Smile had a premium of approximately 2.8% over an out-of-the-money put.
This is a quantitative simplification of the fact that traders are seeking protection. A true haven does not require investors to pay the downside price every time a headline spreads.
So why the difference? Because even in times of stress, BTC acts like a liquidity release valve. It trades 24/7 and is easy to sell, so it is often used to raise quick cash. In contrast, gold is where cash is hidden.
How Bitcoin Reverses Gold
If the market is ultimately going to reward “digital gold” with gold-like behavior, some measurable changes will need to occur. These changes should ideally occur during the next risk-off impulse, rather than after the risk-off impulse has passed.
First, ETFs need to become countercyclical. The haven version of BTC is the version where ETF flows increase during weeks of stock declines or macro scares. This would be a marked change from the current dynamic, which fluctuates from inflows at the beginning of the year to large weekly outflows.
Second, the bias in the options market needs to normalize. A sustained put premium (like the 2.8% short-term tilt seen recently) indicates that the market still expects BTC to amplify volatility rather than absorb it. The shelter regime appears to be more flatly skewed, with significantly reduced demand for collision insurance.
Third, volatility needs to be compressed structurally rather than temporally. Gold rises because it’s “boring”. Bitcoin cannot reliably function as a reserve asset for the internet if it still behaves like a leveraged macro trade whenever policy risk spikes.
Fourth, the buyer mix needs to expand beyond opportunistic risk capital. Today’s marginal buyers of gold include reserve managers and long-term allocators. BTC marginal buyers are still heavily influenced by ETF momentum and derivatives positioning, which could quickly reverse.
What’s next for Bitcoin and gold?
Looking ahead, we can identify three different scenarios for how the relationship between Bitcoin and gold could develop.
- Scenario A: “Gold retains the crown and BTC remains the liquidity alternative.”
If geopolitical tensions and fiscal credibility concerns persist, gold will remain the hedge of choice. BTC may rise on its own adoption cycle, but it is not guaranteed to rise on a day of fear. This scenario is consistent with today’s diversified flows and defensive option pricing.
- Scenario B: “Policy easing causes BTC to rise without becoming a haven.”
If growth slows and markets start pricing in easing financial conditions, BTC could outperform as liquidity improves and ETF returns are sought after. But the driving force here is still risk appetite, not capital preservation. Think of this as a “high beta rebound” rather than a “rain shelter.”
- Scenario C: “Credit shock and regulatory maturity correspond to a partial escape bid.”
The most interesting forward case is if gold’s credibility story strengthens and BTC’s market structure matures enough that large allocators treat it as insurance rather than trading.
Notably, Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 BTC forecast from $300,000 to $150,000. The bank cited a slowdown in purchases by institutional investors through ETFs. This means that the path to “digital gold” is driven not only by the strength of the narrative, but also by more stable institutional demands.
For now, gold is being bought as protection for financial institutions. Bitcoin is still priced as a bet on them.
The moment these roles are reversed, when BTC collects steady inflows because the headlines are ugly and options stop charging a premium to survive, that’s when “digital gold” starts tracking the real thing.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
