Alex Thorne, Head of Corporate Research at Galaxy Digital, said 2026 may be one of the most difficult years to predict for Bitcoin, even though the company maintains a bullish long-term outlook.
In a Dec. 21 post on X, Thorne said next year will be “too chaotic to predict,” citing a mix of macro uncertainty, political risk, and uneven crypto market momentum. Thorne said his comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report, “26 Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026.” The report outlines the company’s expectations for the cryptocurrency market and institutional adoption.
At the time of writing, Thorne said the overall cryptocurrency market was already deep into a bearish phase, with Bitcoin struggling to regain sustained bullish momentum. Downside risk remains until the asset trades definitively above the $100,000-$105,000 range, he said.
What signals are the options markets sending?
Derivatives markets highlight that uncertainty. Thorne said Bitcoin option pricing suggests that the odds of a significantly different outcome next year are roughly equal, with traders assigning similar odds to prices closer to $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026 and $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end.
The options market is widely used by institutional investors to hedge future price risks, and this wide range suggests that experts are bracing for large price swings rather than a clear directional trend.
Signs of structural maturity
At the same time, Thorne pointed to signs of structural changes beneath the surface. He said that Bitcoin’s long-term volatility, a measure of how widely its price fluctuates over time, is decreasing. He attributed some of that change to the growth of institutional strategies, such as option overrides and yield-generating programs, which tend to dampen extreme price movements.
That evolution is also reflected in Bitcoin’s volatility smile, which shows how option prices change with each exercise level. Thorne said downside protection is now more expensive than upside exposure, a pattern more common in mature macro assets such as stocks and commodities than in high-growth markets.
Why a quiet year doesn’t matter
For Thorne, these signals help explain why a potentially range-bound or “boring” 2026 doesn’t hurt Bitcoin’s long-term case. He expects institutional adoption and market maturation to continue even if prices decline or approach long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average.
Beyond short-term price fluctuations, Galaxy’s long-term beliefs rest on deeper institutional integration.
The company said in a Dec. 18 report that major asset allocation platforms may include Bitcoin in their standard model portfolios, which would place the asset in their default investment strategy rather than in discretionary trading. Such adoption would induce persistent inflows into Bitcoin regardless of market cycles, reinforcing Galaxy’s view that structural adoption, rather than short-term volatility, will shape outcomes in 2027 and beyond.
Thorne believes that greater institutional access, potential easing of financial conditions, and demand for fiat currency alternatives could see Bitcoin follow in the footsteps of gold as a hedge against currency declines. Galaxy predicts that its flagship cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
