Bitcoin is up about 4% in the last 24 hours, trading near $110,000. Short-term players are watching a break above $112,200 as a sign of renewed strength, while long-term holders are still enjoying big gains.
According to the report, an easing of US-China tensions could help de-risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term and add a geopolitical layer to the price action.
Macro Risks Could Shape the Next Recession
According to analyst Willy Woo, the next cryptocurrency bear market may be driven by a classic “business cycle” downturn rather than the typical cryptocurrency rhythm.
He pointed out that two cycles have overlapped so far: the four-year Bitcoin halving rhythm and the fluctuations in the M2 money supply.
Woo warned that a true recession like the one seen in 2001 and 2008 would be another test for Bitcoin’s role in the market.
We overlapped two four-year cycles.
Now there is only one. Global M2 Liquidity
The next Bear IMO will be defined as another cycle → economic cycle that people have forgotten.
In fact, the last business cycle recession that occurred was in 2008 and 2001, before the cryptocurrency market was invented. pic.twitter.com/inHqQH7zWx
— Willie Woo (@woonomic) October 20, 2025
Historical events provide guidance
The dot-com recession around 2001 caused U.S. stocks to fall about 50% over two years. And during the 2008 financial crisis, as credit froze and GDP fell, the S&P 500 fell about 56%.
Because these events occurred before cryptocurrencies existed, Woo says cryptocurrencies have not yet been stress-tested by a full-blown recession. According to the report, the concern is about how liquidity will change and how quickly investors will sell riskier assets.
BTCUSD trading at $107,854 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Liquidity and Recession Signs
The National Bureau of Economic Research tracks employment, personal income, industrial production and retail sales to identify recessions. Although there are currently no overall signs that a severe recession is imminent, some risks have risen.
Analysts said trade tariffs were one of the factors holding back growth in the first half of 2025 and were expected to weigh on GDP through the first half of 2026. This slowdown in growth could weaken liquidity and put pressure on markets.
$BTC It regained the $109,000-$110,000 support zone.
The next important level to recover is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin higher.
I think BTC could see more upside from here as US-China trade tensions ease. pic.twitter.com/D8VNses1ix
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 20, 2025
What are traders paying attention to next?
Analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin has regained ground between $109,000 and $110,000 and pointed to $112,000 as the next important resistance.
Moving neatly over that area will help you attract more buyers. Conversely, sharp liquidity pressures from a widespread recession could cause Bitcoin to behave more like tech stocks from past recessions than gold.
real test
Woo said the real test for Bitcoin will come when cash becomes scarce and investors have to make choices about where to store their money outside of the typical cryptocurrency triggers.
He said this period will reveal who treated Bitcoin as a hedge and who treated it as a high-risk bet, and the results will shape institutional behavior and market rules going forward.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
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